Possible 1st cyclone for 2024: PAGASA monitors LPA east of Mindanao

 

Possible 1st cyclone for 2024: PAGASA monitors LPA east of Mindanao. Satellite image shows a low pressure area east of Cagayan province on May 22, 2024

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May 22, 2024 | 2:07pm

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday it is monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao that may develop into the country’s first cyclone of the year. 

The cloud cluster east of southeastern Mindanao developed into an LPA this morning, according to PAGASA. 

The weather disturbance may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or Thursday morning. 

It may affect and make landfall over the Bicol region-Eastern Visayas area by late Friday or on Saturday, still as an LPA. Then, it may emerge over the waters east of Luzon.

The weather bureau said that the development of LPA into a tropical depression around Sunday or Monday is “not ruled out, but less likely.” 

If the LPA becomes a tropical depression, it will be named Aghon, making it the country’s first cyclone of 2024. 

Another scenario shows the LPA recurving over the Philippine Sea near the Bicol Region or Eastern Visayas, potentially developing into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

The Philippines may experience generally fair weather conditions with higher chances of thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening, until Thursday. 

By Friday, the LPA may bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in Bicol region and Eastern Visayas. 

The through of the LPA, which may also develop into tropical depression, may dump scattered rain showers over the eastern portion of Southern Luzon and Eastern Visayas, which may trigger flash floods and landslides. 

PAGASA previously said the country may see up to two tropical cyclones this month as hot weather continues to affect the country.

Climate change made April heat in Asia hotter, more likely — scientists

 

A worker fixes a canopy at a construction site during a heatwave in Manila on April 29, 2024. Unusually hot weather in the Philippines was expected to last until mid-May, a forecaster said April 28, after the temperature hit a record high in the capital Manila.

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May 15, 2024 | 1:40pm

MANILA, Philippines — Extreme temperatures that gripped Asia, including the Philippines, in April were made worse and more likely by human-caused climate change, according to an analysis by climate scientists.

Exceptionally hot weather across Asia triggered health warnings, forced thousands of schools to close down, killed hundreds of people, and damaged crops.

“From Gaza to Delhi to Manila, people suffered and died when April temperatures soared in Asia,” said Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment in the Imperial College London and co-author of the study by the World Weather Attribution group. 

“Heatwaves have always happened. But the additional heat, driven by emissions from oil, gas and coal, is resulting in death for many people,” Otto added. 

Through published peer-reviewed methods, scientists analyzed the impact of climate change on the intensity of the three-day April heatwave in West Asia and a 15-day heatwave in the Philippines.

The scientists found that in the Philippines, similar heatwaves are expected to happen about once every 10 years during El Niño conditions and about once every 20 years in other years without the influence of El Niño.

They also said that a heatwave of this intensity would have been virtually impossible in the Philippines without human-caused climate change, even under El Niño conditions.

“Overall, climate change made this year’s heatwave 1°C hotter, while El Niño made the heatwave a further 0.2°C hotter. If global warming reaches 2°C, similar heatwaves in the Philippines will occur every two to three years and will become another 0.7°C hotter,” the study said. 

In the Philippines, exceptionally hot weather prompted schools to shift classes online and threatened power grids. At least seven people have died from heat-related illnesses since the start of the year, according to the Department of Health.

Heat planning

The researchers said the increasing risk of dangerous heat, particularly in rapidly growing cities like Manila, highlights the critical need for heat planning that protects vulnerable communities. 

“Heat action plans set out measures for dealing with heat, like changing work and school hours,” said Carolina Pereira Marghidan, a climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

“Although various countries have made substantial progress on such plans, there is an urgent need to scale up and further strengthen them across Asia to deal with the rising heat,” she added. 

The Department of Education is gradually reverting back to the academic calendar year, when classes begin in June and end in March. 

Meanwhile, labor groups like Kilusang Mayo Uno are calling on the government and employers to establish measures to ensure the safety of workers such as extended breaks, noting that extreme heat is a “health and safety hazard.”

The World Weather Attribution study was conducted by 13 researchers, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Malaysia, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

Philippines to face more cyclones in 2024 with La Niña’s return

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MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is likely to experience more tropical cyclones in 2024 than last year due to the potential return of La Niña, the state weather bureau PAGASA said on Tuesday.

PAGASA projected 13 to 16 cyclones this year, marking an increase from 11 storms in 2023, an El Niño year. However, the figures are still below the average of 19 to 20 storms the country typically sees annually. 

Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA’s climate monitoring chief, said there are usually more cyclones during La Niña because of warmer ocean temperatures. There is a 62% chance that La Niña will develop during June to August.

"Since the warming of the ocean temperature is closer to us, it is possible that tropical cyclones may develop closer to our seas,” Solis said partly in Filipino. 

“We will experience the possible effects of La Niña during the last quarter of the year,” she added.

La Niña brings stronger trade winds, pushing warm surface water in the western Pacific, where the Philippines is located, and drawing up cool water in the eastern Pacific. Warm water creates more rain. 

Science Secretary Renato Solidum noted that since warm water is closer to the Philippines during La Niña, cyclones could reach land faster. 

“It means the lead time is shorter. For cyclones closer to land, there is less time to prepare,” he said in Filipino. 

Early this March, PAGASA issued a La Niña Watch. Historically, pre-developing La Niña events are characterized by below-normal rainfall. The weather bureau said this suggests a possible slight delay in the onset of the rainy season “likely with the confirmed effects of the ongoing El Niño.”

El Niño, the climate pattern associated with extreme heat and drought, is gradually weakening, but its effects will persist in the coming months. 

Solidum said drought will affect 48 provinces, while dry spells will impact 24 provinces by April. By May, 54 provinces will experience drought and 10 will face dry spells.

The number of drought-stricken provinces will decrease over the next months: 25 by June, 23 by July, and 10 by August. 

PAGASA: El Niño weakens, La Niña may return

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March 7, 2024 | 1:27pm

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Thursday that El Niño is gradually weakening and that La Niña may possibly develop this year.

El Niño, a climate pattern associated with extreme heat and drought, is expected to persist from March to May. 

“While El Niño is weakening, its effects are still expected in the coming months especially as we’re moving to the drier and warmer months of March, April and May,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said in Filipino during a briefing. 

“We advise our fellow countrymen to prepare for the effects of hot and humid weather intensified by El Niño,” he added. 

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the ongoing El Niño has caused over P1 billion in damage to the agricultural sector. 

In an update this week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that the 2023-2024 El Niño was one of the five strongest on record.

2023 was the world’s warmest year on record, by far. The WMO said that El Niño contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping gases “are unequivocally the main culprit.”

Conditions are expected to transition to neutral from April to June. 

Wednesday a La Niña Watch, indicating a more than 55% chance of the cooling climate pattern developing in the next six months.

“A La Niña Watch doesn’t always mean that La Niña will occur. There's still a high possibility that it remains uncertain,” said Ana Liza Solis, who heads PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section.

PAGASA stressed that historically, pre-developing La Niña events are characterized by below-normal rainfall. The weather bureau said this suggests a possible slight delay in the onset of the rainy season “likely with the confirmed effects of the ongoing El Niño.”

“The southwest monsoon is weaker during the pre-developing La Niña phase. Historically, there is a higher possibility of more rainfall during La Niña episodes in the last quarter of the year,” Solis said in Filipino.

La Niña refers to the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Money tops Valentine's Day wish list of Filipinos — SWS

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February 11, 2024 | 10:37am

MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos want both practical and romantic gifts for Valentine's Day, with money topping the list, according to a survey by the Social Weather Stations. 

The survey conducted in December 2023 revealed that money (16%) was the most desired Valentine's Day gift for Filipinos, followed by love and companionship (11%) and flowers (10%).

Other Valentine's Day wishes of Filipinos included apparel (9%), "any gift from the heart" (5%), mobile phone (5%), watches and jewelry (5%), good family relationship (5%), food and grocery items (3%), chocolate (3%), good health of loved ones (3%), motorcycles and other vehicles (2%), and appliances (2%).

Other less popular choices were  written or in-person greeting (1%), kiss (1%), a child (1%), date or dinner (1%), house (1%), cake (1%), stuffed toy (0.4%), wedding (0.3%), alcoholic drink (0.3%), and perfumes and cosmetics (0.3%). 

"More men wished for apparel and any gift from the heart, while more women wished for money and flowers. Both sexes wished for love and companionship equally," SWS said. 

Number of single Filipinos rising

The survey also found that 58% of Filipinos reported being very happy with their love life, while 23% felt it could be happier. Only 19% indicated having no love life. 

A significant majority of married couples said they were "very happy" with their love life, with 76% of men and 67% of women expressing this sentiment.

However, SWS noted that the number of Filipinos who reported having no love life is "gradually increasing."

The poll was conducted using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults, with a margin of error of ±2.8% for national percentages and ±5.7% for regional breakdowns.

Multi-hazard platform empowers Filipinos to report disasters in real-time

 

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MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos can now report and share information about floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones in their communities directly from their mobile phones with the launch of a multi-hazard platform. 

MapaKalamidad.ph is a crowd-based platform that provides real-time hazard information. The tool aims to enhance disaster preparedness and response efforts in the Philippines by empowering citizens to share critical information in the face of hazards. 

The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including cyclones and floods. It is also highly exposed to geologic hazards, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

MapaKalamidad.ph harnesses the power of social media to gather disaster information from residents on the ground, who often have the most up-to-date information in their area. This real-time information, like a flood report, is then displayed on a web-based map.

The data can be used by authorities to coordinate response efforts.

“MapaKalamidad allows everyone access to this information on their mobile phones, which means every single resident can participate in this cooperative process to share what’s going on around them, to understand what’s going on around them,” Nashin Mahtani, director of Yayasan Peta Bencana (Disaster Map Foundation), told reporters during the platform’s launch Monday. 

“That allows people to make critical decisions about safety and navigation during disasters instead of concentrating decision making tools in a small group of people sitting in a control room,” she added. 

A pilot version of the platform was launched in 2020, covering only Quezon City and Pampanga. The reach of the tool was expanded nationwide in 2022, but was only limited to flood reports. 

“Establishing and developing initiatives in the area of information sharing support the various aspects of our work in disaster risk reduction,” Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Operations Service Director Cesar Idio said. 

How to report using the MapaKalamidad.ph

Social media users can search for @kalamidadbot on Telegram or @mapakalamidad on Facebook Messenger to report hazards in their communities. 

A one-time link prompts them to input location, upload a photo, and describe the hazard. Then, users will receive links to their reports on the map. 

“What makes MapaKalamidad stand out is that it’s not an app, and it plugs into existing social media channels. That’s what allows us to reach millions of users every day,” Mahtani said.

She added the platform was designed to encourage people to submit detailed information, minimizing the risk of false reports. 

Government agencies like the OCD and local government units also help validate reports sent by users. 

“Through those factors, we’re able to ensure that all of the reports come in real-time, but they’re all verified,” Mahtani said.

The MapaKalamidad.ph team is working on integrating SMS and radio services to allow residents without internet access to report hazards.

The multi-hazard platform has an Indonesian counterpart—PetaBencana.id—which was launched in 2013.

DOH says COVID-19 pandemic not yet over after global health emergency lifting

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MANILA, Philippines — The public should not be complacent as the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over, the Department of Health said Tuesday following the move of the World Health Organization to end the global emergency status for the coronavirus crisis.

Last week, the WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the COVID-19 pandemic, which killed millions of people and wreaked economic and social havoc, no longer constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern.” PHEIC is the WHO’s highest level of alert.

“Even though the WHO has already lifted the PHEIC status, they didn’t say the pandemic is already over,” Health officer-in-charge Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a briefing.

“We want to remind everyone that even though the PHEIC has been lifted, we cannot be complacent at this point. We still need to be vigilant,” she added.

For Marcos' approval

The Inter-Agency Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases, which the DOH chairs, met Monday to discuss the impacts of the WHO declaration and the policies that will be affected.

Vergeire did not disclose the task force’s recommendations, but said these will be submitted to President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. next week for his consideration and approval.

“For now, all policies based on the president’s executive orders and other IATF resolutions shall still be in effect until otherwise repealed,” she said.

The WHO first declared PHEIC over the crisis on Jan. 30, 2020, and classified it a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte on March 8, 2020 declared a state of public health emergency due to COVID-19, allowing national and local government agencies to implement urgent and critical measures to contain the spread of the virus, and mitigate its effects to the community. This declaration is yet to be lifted.

“We are going to align whatever existing policies there are if the public health emergency is lifted,” Vergeire said.

In anticipation of the possible lifting of the country’s public health emergency over COVID-19, vaccine manufacturers are being encouraged to apply for certificate of product registration as the Food and Drug Administration will no longer be able to issue emergency use authorization for jabs, the health official said.

A CPR is issued by the FDA to manufacturers to distribute, market or sell their products to the public.

Increase in cases

COVID-19 cases in the Philippines are on the rise, with the DOH reporting 9,465 infections in the past week. There were 12,161 active COVID-19 cases as of Monday.

“Although we have seen an increase in COVID-19 cases, this does not translate to an increase in hospital admissions, severe and critical cases remain low, and many of the cases are mild,” Vergeire said.

According to Vergeire, 96% of these cases were either mild, asymptomatic or moderate, and the country’s healthcare utilization rate remains at low risk.

The Philippines has confirmed over 4.1 million COVID-19 infections, with more than 66,000 deaths, since the pandemic began in early 2020.