Hot weather to persist due to easterlies, ridge of high pressure area

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

Jul 7, 2023 09:08 AM

  

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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Friday, July 7 said most of the country may continue to experience hot and humid weather due to the prevalence of the easterlies and ridge of high pressure area (HPA).

“Most of the country will experience generally sunny weather with hot and humid temperatures, especially around noon,” PAGASA weather specialist Benison Estareja said.

He said the easterlies, or warm winds from the Pacific Ocean, may bring hot and humid weather to Visayas and Mindanao, but may also bring localized thunderstorms.

Aside from the easterlies, Estareja added that the ridge or extension of an HPA, which produces fewer clouds, resulting in less rain and more direct exposure, may also affect most of Northern and Central Luzon.

The HPA is an “anti-cyclone” weather system.

Only the southern portion of Palawan may continue to experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a convergence of winds coming from the northern and southern hemispheres where rain-bearing clouds form.

(PIXABAY)

Based on the PAGASA’s extended weather outlook for key areas from July 8 to 11, maximum air temperatures may range from 34 to 36 degrees Celsius (℃) in Metro Manila, 36 to 37℃ in Tuguegarao City, 25 to 26℃ in Baguio City, 32 to 33℃ in Laoag City, 31 to 32℃ in Tagaytay City, 32 to 33℃ in Legazpi City, 31 to 32℃ in Metro Cebu, 32 to 33℃ in Metro Davao, and 34 to 35℃ in Zamboanga City.

Estareja urged the public to bring heat protection when going outside.

Meanwhile, he noted that a new cloud formation along the ITCZ was monitored approaching Mindanao, which may affect Visayas and Mindanao in the coming week.

Estareja said that while PAGASA does not anticipate a tropical cyclone entering the PAR in the coming days, a shallow low pressure area (LPA) may form within the ITCZ.

He added that while the potential LPA may enter the PAR, the likelihood of it becoming a tropical cyclone is still low.

El Niño intensifying: PAGASA sees increasing probability of ‘moderate to strong’ event in late 2023 or early 2024

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

  

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AT A GLANCE

• A weak El Niño is comparable to a person having a low-grade fever, a moderate El Niño is similar to having a moderate fever, and a strong El Niño is comparable to having “convulsions.”
• There is an 86 percent chance that the El Niño will become a moderate event around November-December 2023 or January 2024.
• Meanwhile, there is a 56 percent chance that the El Niño will become strong by December 2023 or January-February 2024.
• The effects of El Niño on the country may last longer during a strong event.

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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the El Niño climate phenomenon may intensify in the coming months and reach a “moderate to strong” level by the end of 2023 or early 2024.

Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said in a televised public briefing on Thursday, July 6, that there is an 86 percent chance that the El Niño will become a moderate event around November-December 2023 or January 2024.

Meanwhile, there is a 56 percent chance that the El Niño will become strong by December 2023 or January-February 2024.

(PIXABAY)

PAGASA confirmed the presence of “weak” El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific on July 4.

According to Solis, a weak El Niño is comparable to a person having a low-grade fever, a moderate El Niño is similar to having a moderate fever, and a strong El Niño is comparable to having “convulsions.”

When an El Niño is strong, the sea warms up significantly, causing the country to experience warmer temperatures and less rainfall than it would during a weak or moderate event, she explained.

This also means that the effects of El Niño on the country may last longer during a strong event.

Solis warned that the country may experience a dry spell or drought due to lower rainfall forecast for the coming months.

There is also an increasing possibility that air temperatures will be warmer particularly next year, she said.

‘Habagat’ may still bring some rains

Solis said most of the country may still experience some rains from the southwest monsoon, also known as the habagat, which will last until September.

During this period, there are still tropical cyclones, other rain-bearing weather systems, and the habagat, which can be sometimes enhanced by cyclones, she pointed out.

Solis said there may still be 10 to 14 cyclones that may enter or form within the country’s area of responsibility until the end of the year—two to four in July, two or three in August, two or three in September, two or three in October, one or two in November, and one or two in December.

She noted that although there are tropical cyclones that may not make landfall, some of them can intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat,” which may cause rains over the western parts of the country.

However, there are early manifestations of El Niño conditions during the habagat season, one of which is the decrease in the country’s cyclone activity, she added.

Only three tropical cyclones have affected the country so far this year. These are cyclones Amang, Betty, and Chedeng.

There has been no tropical cyclone recorded in the country so far this July, but based on PAGASA’s climatological record, two to four typhoons may enter or form within the Philippine area of responsibility this month.

Solis said the widespread effect of El Niño, manifested by drier and warmer conditions, may be felt as early as October.

Mayon lava flow advances 2.7 km from crater — Phivolcs

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

  

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The lava flow from Mayon Volcano continued to cascade down its slopes at a “very slow” rate and has now reached a length of up to 2.7 kilometers as of Sunday, July 2, said the Philippine Institute and Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).

From 5 a.m. on Saturday, July 1, to 5 a.m. on Sunday, July 2, Phivolcs said the very slow effusion of lava from the summit crater of Mayon Volcano continued to feed lava flows and collapse debris on the Mi-isi and Bonga gullies on the southern and southeastern flanks, respectively.

Lava flows measuring approximately 2,700 and 1,300 meters have descended to the Mi-isi and Bonga gullies, respectively.

Phivolcs said rockfall and pyroclastic density current (PDC) occurrences were also observed at the Mi-isi, Bonga, and Basud gullies.

Basud Gully is on the eastern portion of Mayon Volcano.

Phivolcs said volcanic debris has descended 4,000 meters from the crater.

The “very slow” lava effusion from Mayon Volcano's summit crater continues on June 26, 2023, causing incandescent rockfall and pyroclastic density current (PDC) activity along the Mi-isi and Bonga Gullies. (Screengrab from Phivolcs)

2 PDCs, 397 rockfalls, 4 volcanic quakes

During the 24-hour monitoring of the Mayon Volcano, Phivolcs also recorded two lava dome collapse-triggered PDCs that lasted two minutes, 397 rockfall events, and four volcanic earthquakes.

A significant amount of gas was also constantly released from Mayon, which caused its emission of steam-laden plumes about 1,500 meters high before dissipating to the southwest, south-southwest, and northwest.

Phivolcs noted that the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) averaged 864 tons per day when it was last measured on July 1.

‘Intensified’ unrest persists

Mayon Volcano is still under Alert Level 3 as it is “currently in a relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruption within weeks or even days is possible.”

Phivolcs strongly recommended the evacuation of residents within the six-kilometer permanent danger zone due to the risk of PDCs, lava flows, rockfalls, and other volcanic hazards.

In addition, it advised communities to maintain increased vigilance against PDCs, lahars and sediment-laden stream flows along channels draining the volcano edifice, as heavy rainfall could cause channel-confined lahars and sediment-laden stream flows.

Pilots were also asked to avoid flying close to the volcano because ash from a sudden eruption may pose hazards to aircraft.

According to Phivolcs, communities on the southern side of Mayon Volcano may most likely experience ash fall events based on the current wind pattern.

Meteor showers to illuminate PH skies in July

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

Jul 2, 2023 10:28 AM

  

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Filipinos may get to see three meteor shower events this month, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its July astronomical diary.

PAGASA said the Piscis Austrinid, Southern δ-Aquariids, and α-Capricornids meteor showers will all be active this month.

The Piscis Austrinid meteor shower will be visible from July 15 to Aug. 10 with its peak on July 29.

“It will be active from the time its radiant, Piscis Austrinus, begins to rise in the southeastern sky at 8:47 p.m. until before sunrise, producing an average of five meteors per hour,” PAGASA said.

“The number of visible meteors increases as the radiant rises to its highest point in the sky around 2 a.m.,” it added.

The southern sky on July 29, 2023, at 2 a.m., during the peak of the Piscis Austrinids when the shower’s radiant represented by the solid green circle is most prominent in the sky. (PAGASA) 

However, it pointed out that the waxing gibbous Moon may cause substantial interference in the observation of this meteor shower event.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said the Southern δ-Aquariids meteor shower will be active from July 12 to Aug. 23 with its peak activity on July 30.

It is anticipated to produce 25 meteors per hour. 

The α-Capricornids will also be active from July 3 to Aug. 15, with its peak activity on July 30, PAGASA said.

Five meteors are expected to be produced every hour.

“Both of these meteor showers (Southern δ-Aquariids and α-Capricornids) can be found in the southeastern sky, and are likely to produce their best displays around 2 a.m. when their radiant point is highest in the sky,” PAGASA said.

Up to 4 cyclones may enter or form within PAR in July — PAGASA

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

Jun 30, 2023 08:40 AM

  

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AT A GLANCE

• Cyclone tracks in July show that some are "landfalling," or passing through, the Philippines, while others are "recurving," or not directly affecting the country.

• The names of the next tropical cyclones on PAGASA’s list are Dodong, Egay, Falcon, and Goring.
• Although there are tropical cyclones that do not make landfall, some of them can intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat,” which may cause rains over the western parts of the country.

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Three or four tropical cyclones may enter or develop within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in July, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The names of the next tropical cyclones on PAGASA’s list are Dodong, Egay, Falcon, and Goring.

Based on the PAGASA’s climatological record, there are four potential cyclone tracks in July.

• The cyclone does not make landfall because it recurves or moves away from the country;
  
  

• Makes landfall over the country’s extreme northern Luzon islands;
  
  

• Makes landfall and traverses the northern and central parts of Luzon;
  
  

• Makes landfall and crosses the southern portion of Luzon.
  
  

Tropical cyclone climatological tracks in July within the Philippine area of responsibility or PAR (PAGASA)

PAGASA noted that although there are tropical cyclones that do not make landfall, some of them can intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat,” which may cause rains over the western parts of the country.

Furthermore, PAGASA said that while an El Niño is expected to form, the country may still experience “near-to-above-normal” rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, as well as “near-normal” rainfall in Mindanao, with the exception of Davao del Sur, which may experience “below-normal” rainfall in July.

By August, the country may receive “near-normal” rainfall with patches of below-normal rainfall in some parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Caraga.

In most parts of Luzon, the probability of above-normal rainfall is higher, except in Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao, where the probability of below-normal rainfall is higher, PAGASA pointed out.

By September, most parts of Luzon, some parts of Visayas, and Central Mindanao may have near-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country may receive below-normal rainfall.

“[There is a] high probability for above-normal rainfall in most parts of northwestern Luzon, while the rest of the country has a high probability of below-normal rainfall,” PAGASA said.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said on June 27 that 66 provinces across the country may experience dry conditions by the end of the year.

By October, most of Luzon and Visayas may have below-normal rainfall, while most of Mindanao, with the exception of Caraga, may have near-normal rainfall, with a higher probability of below-normal rainfall (40 to 45 percent chance) in most parts of the country.

By November, below-normal rainfall may prevail in most of the country, except in some parts of Visayas and Mindanao, where near-normal rainfall is likely.

“[There is a] probability for below-normal rainfall (50-60 percent chance) in most parts of the country,” PAGASA said.

By December, most parts of Luzon may experience “way-below-normal” rainfall, while below-normal rainfall may affect the rest of the country.

Isolated rain showers with thunderstorms may prevail over most of PH this weekend

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

Jun 30, 2023 12:43 PM

  

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The entire archipelago may experience partly cloudy to cloudy weather in the coming week, with the possibility of isolated afternoon or evening rain showers or thunderstorms, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its weekly weather outlook released on Friday, June 30.

From Saturday to Sunday, July 1 to 2, PAGASA said the “whole archipelago will generally have fair weather condition aside from isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.”

From Monday to Friday, July 3 to 7, Visayas and Mindanao may experience cloudy weather with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the prevalence of the intertropical convergence zone—a convergence of winds from the northern and southern hemispheres where rain-bearing clouds form.

Meanwhile, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with afternoon rain showers or thunderstorms are possible in Luzon.

PAGASA said updates through weather advisories will be issued if there are significant changes in the weather scenario.

Mayon records 16 dome collapses, 257 rockfalls, 24 volcanic quakes in 24 hours

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

Jun 25, 2023 11:27 AM

  

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Mayon Volcano continued to show “high-level unrest” with the occurrence of some dome collapse pyroclastic density current (PDC), rockfalls, and volcanic earthquakes during the 24-hour monitoring of the restive volcano in Albay, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said in its bulletin on Sunday, June 25.

Phivolcs defines effusive eruption as the outpouring of lava onto the ground, as opposed to explosive eruption, which is characterized by violent magma fragmentation.

“In the past 24-hour period, very slow effusion of lava from the summit crater of Mayon Volcano continued to feed lava flows and collapse debris on the Mi-isi (south) and Bonga (southeastern) gullies,” it said.

“The lava flows have advanced to revised approximate lengths of 1,300 meters and 1,200 meters along Mi-isi and Bonga gullies, respectively, from the summit crater while collapse[d] debris [has] deposited to 3,300 meters from the crater,” it added.

Phivolcs also observed 600-meter steam-laden plumes from the volcano.

The effusive eruption of Mayon Volcano produces lava, as seen in this photo taken on June 17, 2023. (ALI VICOY/MANILA BULLETIN)

Alert Level 3 stays

Mayon Volcano has been on Alert Level 3 since June 8, which means that there is a “relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruption within weeks or even days is possible.”

According to Phivolcs, Mayon may maintain its alert status because it saw its current state to last for a few months, just like the eruption of the volcano in 2014.

The evacuation of residents within the six-kilometer permanent danger zone has been recommended due to the risk of PDCs, lava flows, rockfalls, and other volcanic hazards.

Phivolcs warned the public to be cautious of PDCs, lahars, and sediment-laden stream flows along channels draining the volcano edifice.

It pointed out that heavy rainfall could cause channel-confined lahars and sediment-laden stream flows on channels where PDC deposits were emplaced.

Likewise, it said that ash fall events may “most likely” occur on the south side of the volcano, based on the current wind pattern.

Phivolcs advised civil aviation authorities to ask pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano because ash from sudden eruption may pose hazards to aircraft.

Mayon eruption continues; 299 rockfall, 8 dome-collapse events in past 24 hours

BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ

  

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Mayon Volcano continued to show signs of heightened activity between Wednesday, June 21, and Thursday, June 22, recording a “very slow” lava effusion, 299 rockfall events, and eight dome-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), based on the monitoring of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).

Phivolcs said in a bulletin released on Thursday that the effusive eruption of Mayon was still causing slow lava flows and collapsing debris in the Mi-isi and Bonga gullies on the south and southeast slopes, respectively.

Molten lava glows as it flows from the mouth of Mayon Volcano in this photo taken from Barangay Budiao in Daraga, Albay, on Saturday night, June 17, 2023 (Ali Vicoy/Manila Bulletin)

From the summit crater, the lava flows have advanced to “maximum lengths” of 2,500 meters and 1,800 meters along the Mi-isi and Bonga gullies, respectively, while collapsed debris has descended to a distance of 3,300 meters. 

Eight dome-collapse PDCs lasted two to five minutes long.

According to Phivolcs, PDCs are mixtures of fragmented volcanic particles or pyroclastics, hot gases, and ash that rush down the volcaninc slopes or rapidly outward from a source vent at high speeds.

‘Hazardous’ eruption still possible

Phivolcs said that Mayon’s current state could last for a few months and its alert status could be maintained. It has been on alert level 3 since June 8.

However, it pointed out that Mayon is still in a “relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruption within weeks or even days is possible.”

The evacuation of residents within the six-kilometer permanent danger zone has been recommended due to the risk of PDCs, lava flows, rockfalls, and other volcanic hazards.

Phivolcs warned the public to be cautious of PDCs, lahars, and sediment-laden stream flows along channels draining the volcano edifice.

It pointed out that heavy rainfall could cause channel-confined lahars and sediment-laden stream flows on channels where PDC deposits were emplaced.

Likewise, it said that ash fall events may “most likely” occur on the south side of the volcano, based on the current wind pattern.

Phivolcs advised civil aviation authorities to ask pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano because ash from sudden eruption may pose hazards to aircraft.