A UN panel believes the world could meet a maximum target for global
warming if it significantly cuts annual emissions by 2050. According to a
report, however, few nations are doing enough to meet the stated goal.
Annual emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases must drop 40-70
percent by 2050 to keep the global temperature rise below the 2-degree
Celsius (3.6-degree F), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) announced in a report released last Sunday.
So far, the opposite has happened: On average global emissions rose by 1
billion tons a year between 2000 and 2010, outpacing growth in previous
decades to reach "unprecedented levels" despite some efforts to contain
them, the IPCC announced.
"There is a clear message from science," IPCC co-chair Ottmar Edenhofer
said. "To avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, we need
to move away from business as usual."
According to scientists, failure to meet the 2-degree target could lead
to further droughts, rising seas and heat waves. The IPCC adopted its
33-page summary at a weeklong session in Berlin to help guide the nearly
200 governments negotiating a new climate agreement for next year.
Top three emitters
Counting all emissions since the 18th century, the United States remains
the top carbon polluter. However, China's current emissions run much
greater than those of the US.
Along with China and the US, the EU as a bloc is in the world's
top-three emitters. About half of the world's combined emissions since
1750 have come in the past 40 years.
The IPCC will release a larger scientific report this week. A report last month
warned that flooding, droughts and other climate impacts could have
devastating effects on economies, agriculture and human health,
particularly in developing countries.
Global temperatures have risen about 0.8 Celsius since record-keeping
started in 1850. The IPCC found that keeping warming below 2 C by the
year 2100 will require a shift from oil and coal. That would mean a
near-quadrupling of energy from zero- or low-carbon sources such as
solar and wind power.
"The only safe path forward is to arrive at a carbon neutral world in the second half of this century," Figueres said.
