A fourth term?
IN MY OPINIONKlaus Doring
Since the Britains will be leaving the European Union, Germany seems to become the richest and leading European country. Poll data published last Friday (November 25, 2016) shows that Germans welcome Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to run for a fourth term. SPD leader and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, however, has less to smile about. Why? Later in this column.
I was not much surprised learning that around two-thirds of Germans say they welcome Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to stand for a fourth term as chancellor in next year’s election, according to a poll published. The “Politbarometer” poll, commissioned by the German broadcaster ZDF, found that 64 percent backed the chancellor’s decision, compared to 33 percent who opposed it. Among registered supporters of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, Merkel’s approval rate was as high as 89 percent.
Why nobody is not surprised any more? Who else could become German chancellor?
The poll also showed also that if the election were held this Sunday, Merkel’s conservative Union bloc – the CDU and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – would take around 36 percent of the vote, retaining their spot as the leading party. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), by contrast, would only win 21 percent. As “Politbarometer” points out, this would likely be enough for the Union parties to form a coalition with the Greens and centrist Free Democratic Party. It would not, however, be enough for Germany’s left-leaning parties to form a so-called red-red-green coalition, consisting of the SPD, the Left Party and Greens.
I mentioned before Sigmar Gabriel.The poll results also shed light on who voters would prefer to see leading the SDP, with current European Parliament President Martin Schulz significantly outranking the current party head Sigmar Gabriel. Some 51 percent of respondents said they would favor Schulz to be the SPD’s candidate for chancellor, compared to 29 percent who said they preferred Gabriel. Among registered SPD supporters, Schulz’s approval rating to lead the party into the elections rose to 64 percent, while Gabriel’s sank to 27 percent.
Schulz has not declared that he will run for the chancellorship. How-ever, he announced on Thursday that he will stand down from his EU post as president of the EU Parliament to return to German politics. The SPD is expected to announce their candidate for the chancellorship by the end of January. Martin Schulz read his announcement in Brussels in three languages: German, English and French. Little things like this demonstrate that, for Social Democrats, Europe was and remains very dear to their hearts.
Schulz’s decision to leave now also has to do with the fact that he cannot continue in office as president of the European Parliament. According to an agreement to which all parliamentary parties have subscribed, a representative of the conservative EVP must take over the position in 2017. So Schulz is now keen to exert his influence from Berlin – and not just as an ordinary member of parliament. For someone like him, there are two positions that suggest themselves: the office of foreign minister, or the SPD’s chancellor candidate in next year’s election.
So far, Martin Schulz has not commented on which of the two he’s aiming for, or whether he’s aiming for both at once. There’s little or nothing to be heard from the SPD on the subject, either. But that’s no bad thing – on the contrary. The SPD doesn’t want to decide on its chancellor candidate until January. Until then, it’s presenting itself as a party with at least two political heavyweights to offer: Martin Schulz on the one hand; and on the other, of course, the party’s current leader and Germany’s incumbent vice chancellor and economics minister, Sigmar Gabriel.
However, come to the decision that his friend Schulz would be the better candidate, the latter would be given the field. Schulz is up to both election campaigning and the job of foreign minister. From the SPD’s point of view, Schulz would also be a good choice for foreign minister. He’s experienced in the diplomatic arena, has excellent contacts, and is also accepted outside his own ranks. He’s made a name for himself as someone who speaks frankly. That would certainly make an agreeable change from Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is more careful and deliberate. It would also be a counterpoint to Chancellor Merkel’s line, which focuses more on quiet tones and working behind the scenes.
Anyway, global politics will become more and more thrilling and exciting. A totally global change of restructuring might be possible. After elections in the U.S., Europe will face several national elections – also in Germany.
