By Arlie O. Calalo
THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has declared that the cold weather called La Niña, which has led to a number of tropical cyclones in the country, has ended after over a year.
However, this does not mean that El Niño or warm weather has begun.
"Most of the climate models predict that ENSO- neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) is favored from March through June this year with an increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño thereafter," according to Pagasa Administrator Vicente Malano.
Although La Niña has ended, Malano said its lingering effect may still result in above-normal rainfall conditions in the coming months, which may lead to heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in some highly vulnerable areas.
On one hand, El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could result in dry spells and droughts in some areas of the country, he said.
In its advisory, Pagasa said the country will experience a gradual shift of wind systems as the northeast monsoon locally known as "amihan" is predicted to wane and the easterlies will become predominant this March.
Other weather systems still likely to affect the country are the ridge of high pressure areas (HPAs), low pressure areas (LPAs) and convergence zones, it said.
The state-run weather agency has predicted that at least one tropical cyclone will likely occur within this month.
Generally, most parts of the country may experience near to above-normal rainfall conditions except for some provinces over the western section of Northern Luzon and the northern part of Palawan that may receive below-normal to way below-normal rainfall within March, Pagasa said.
