Inflation to remain a top concern for PH

Price check A shopper checks the prices of canned goods at a supermarket in Manila on Monday, Dec. 5, 2022. PHOTO MIKE ALQUINTO

By Eireene Jairee Gomez, Manila Times

January 2, 2023 

THE one thing the Filipino consumer will probably remember about 2022 is that it was a year of skyrocketing prices. On basically all fronts, households had to contend with stretching already extended budgets while wondering how much more expensive things could get.

It wasn't how people expected 2022 to turn out. Hopes were high that, after two years of pandemic-spurred lockdowns, the world was on track toward soon reopening. However, a one-two first-quarter combo — a new Covid-19 surge and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — quickly clouded the outlook for economies worldwide.

Food and energy prices quickly soared in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, which Filipinos immediately felt via a series of pump price increases that continued all through 2022. Rising demand, meanwhile, stressed supply chains and spurred price hikes elsewhere.

Domestic inflation, which started the year at a within-target 3.0 percent, skyrocketed to a 14-year high of 8.0 by November. The full-year picture still isn't complete — December data is scheduled to be released this Thursday — but the 11-month average of 5.6 percent is well over the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) 2.0- to 4.0-target.

The December result could end up being higher as the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee last month raised its full-year inflation forecast to 5.8 percent from 4.5 to 5.5 percent. Last Thursday, the central bank said consumer price growth could have hit 7.8 to 8.6 percent last month.

The BSP's policymaking Monetary Board (MB) ended up raising key interest rates by a total of 350 basis points (bps) last year in a bid to rein in inflation, the last being a 50-bps hike in December that hiked the benchmark interest rate to 5.50 percent, the overnight deposit rate to 5.0 percent and the overnight lending rate to 6.0 percent.

Further adjustments haven't been ruled out for 2023 — the BSP expects its 2.0- to 4.0-goal to again be breached this year — and monetary authorities have stressed that they remain ready to take all actions needed to bring inflation within target "as soon as possible."

Last month, BSP Governor Felipe Medalla declined to rule out further tightening during the first two MB meetings this year, saying "one can never say never." The terminal policy rate for 2023, he added, could hit 6.0 percent.

Non-monetary measures

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), meanwhile, has said that the government remained committed to providing timely assistance to those hardest hit by inflation and implementing agricultural productivity measures to ensure the country's food security.

"The government is continuously implementing targeted subsidies and discounts to allay the impact of the higher prices of essential goods, especially for the vulnerable sectors and low-income earners of our society," Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said last year.

In anticipation of higher inflation in December, the Department of Budget and Management released P5.2 billion to cover the third tranche of the Targeted Cash Transfer (TCT) program of the Department of Social Welfare and Development. This covers a total of 9.8 million identified beneficiaries who are most affected by the continuous rise in commodity prices.

The TCT program grants unconditional cash transfers of P500 per month to the most affected households for six months to mitigate the effects of the increase in the prices of fuel and other non-fuel commodities.

"To ease price pressures, we continue to implement measures to boost food production and reduce the cost of bringing farm produce to the market," Balisacan said.

The Department of Agriculture, meanwhile, expanded the Kadiwa Program that aims to connect producers to consumers, allowing for higher profits for local farmers and more affordable prices for consumers.

The government is also supporting the agriculture sector by implementing programs to lower input costs, provide financial assistance in the form of fuel discounts to farmers and fisherfolk, develop innovations and strengthen the agricultural value chain.

On the provision of social assistance, Balisacan highlighted the importance of accelerating the government's digital transformation for a more efficient and faster delivery of services.

"We need to provide assistance, particularly to vulnerable groups, especially in times of high inflation. However, we need to improve our delivery mechanisms, particularly on the provision of ayuda (aid) to ensure that the aid reaches the right people in a timely manner," the NEDA chief said.

The medium-term plan

Meanwhile, the government's recently approved Philippine Development Plan for 2023-2028 provides other measures to address elevated inflation and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. last December 16 approved the plan, which sets out the economic and social transformation roadmap for his six-year term. It seeks to promote job creation and intensify poverty reduction by steering the economy back to a high-growth path.

The strategies include building information and communications technology, creatives, tourism and logistics ecosystems around manufacturing clusters; building a dynamic innovation ecosystem; harnessing the private sector's resources, technologies and potential for scale economies through public-private partnerships; and ensuring the effective devolution of critical social services to local governments.

The PDP 2023-2028 is anchored on the AmBisyon Natin 2040, a long-term vision where Filipinos will be enjoying strongly rooted, comfortable and secure lives by 2040.

"Given the uncertainties and headwinds that we face, the plan is our roadmap that will show us the way forward, guiding our efforts and initiatives as we sustain our robust economic recovery and aspire for no less than the economic and social transformation of our country toward a matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay (stable, comfortable and tranquil lives) for all Filipinos," Balisacan said.

A positive note

Meanwhile, amid the continuing economic challenges, the Philippines is expected to become the 27th-largest economy in the world by 2037 according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research's (CEBR) World Economic League Table 2023 report.

Gross domestic product growth is expected to average 5.3 percent over the next five years and 5.0 percent over the next 15 years. These will advance the Philippines to 27th in 2037 from 38th spot this year. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines will be the fourth-biggest economy by 2037 behind Indonesia (11th), Thailand (25th) and Vietnam (26th) but ahead of Malaysia (35th).

The Philippine economy shrank by 9.6 percent in 2020 as strict Covid-19 quarantine and lockdown protocols stalled business activities. However, it bounced back with a 5.7-percent expansion in 2021. For 2022, growth will likely reach 6.5 percent, according to CEBR, within the government's 6.5- to 7.5- percent target.

Balisacan is optimistic that the 2002 goal would be exceeded given expectations of a "robust" fourth quarter. "It's [been] quite exceeded already," he said last month. "I think given the indication that we're seeing in the fourth quarter, it's likely going to exceed even... the upper limit of that range."

The NEDA chief, however, noted that the government needed to expand and diversify the country's sources of growth if it was to keep the economy growing.

"Instead of just looking at consumption, we need to be seeing more investments... trade sources of growth. In the supply side, instead of just seeing services, we need to be seeing more manufacturing, more construction, more utilities, even mining, which we hope could contribute strongly in the medium-term growth," he said.

"Agriculture could also be a driver to the extent that we can increase productivity there and temper any pressures extended on food prices," Balisacan continued.

Inflation 'shock' hits euro economy

By Agence France-Presse

BRUSSELS: Economic growth in the eurozone plummeted in June, a key survey showed on Thursday, as high prices took the wind out the strong recovery from the deep lows of the coronavirus pandemic.

The closely watched monthly purchasing managers' index by S&P Global fell from 54.8 in May to 51.9 this month. A figure above 50 indicates growth; below that, a contraction.

The slowdown, caused by a "cost-of-living shock," is "the most abrupt recorded by the survey since the height of the global financial crisis in November 2008," excluding the pandemic-caused lockdown, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

Since the beginning of the year, the European economy has recovered strongly from the lifting of restrictions linked to the Covid-19 crisis. The move revived tourism in countries like Spain and Greece, as well as transport.

It also benefited from household spending, as consumers burned through savings accumulated during many months of confinement, offsetting the negative impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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But in June, the "tailwind" of this pent-up demand "is already fading," Williamson warned.

The latest data "is now consistent with gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just 0.2 percent for the second quarter, compared to quarterly growth of 0.6 percent at the start of the year," he said.

Inflation, rate woes drag shares anew

By Agence France-Presse and Manila Times

HONG KONG: Stock markets struggled on Tuesday on long-running worries over surging inflation and rising interest rates, which overshadowed hopes that China would ease off its regulatory drive against its beleaguered technology giants.

A spike in United States Treasury yields took the wind out of the proverbial sails for Wall Street, with the focus now on the release of US and Chinese inflation data at the end of the week.

Analysts are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lift borrowing costs by half a point at its next three meetings as officials try to get a grip on runaway consumer prices.

But that is causing discomfort on trading floors as investors fret over the impact on economic growth and firms' bottom lines.

"Inflation concerns are not going anywhere fast," Fiona Cincotta of City Index said. "Rising crude oil prices and a strong labor report have lifted bets that the Fed may need to act aggressively to rein in inflation."

      

SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes said "investors are hyper-focused on inflation, economic growth and future Fed policy."

Most, he added, "assume the worst and think a financial tsunami [would] hit the US and global markets, thanks to the quorum of US-based bank CEOs (chief executive officers) that have given the gloomy growth narrative their imprimatur. Anything less than that outcome is going to surprise a lot of folks."

Equity markets were mixed in Asia and Europe.

Tokyo rose, helped by a softening of the yen to a two-year low owing to expectations that the Bank of Japan would not tighten monetary policy just as US rates climb.

Shares mixed as chances for rate increases grow

Manila and Jakarta also edged up, but there were losses in Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok, Wellington and Taipei.

Sydney dropped more than 1 percent after the Australian central bank announced a bigger-than-forecast half-point rate hike to quell inflation.

Hong Kong fell and Shanghai ticked slightly higher, even as heavyweights Alibaba and JD.com led a rally among tech firms following a report that China was close to ending a painful crackdown on ride-hailing app Didi Global and restoring its main apps this week. Didi's US-listed notes soared more than 20 percent.

The Wall Street Journal said probes into two other firms — Full Truck Alliance and recruitment platform Kanzhun — were fanning optimism for the sector's outlook after a long period of hefty selling pressure.

Stocks mixed as inflation, rate woes temper rally

"This was seen as a signal that the regulatory crackdown on Chinese tech firms was starting to end... as China focuses on stabilizing the economy following Covid restrictions," National Australia Bank's Tapas Strickland said.

London was flat in early trade, but Paris and Frankfurt fell.

Markets have seen some leveling out in recent weeks as the easing of restrictions in China helps to offset some of the worries about higher rates and the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

US tech rout, China data drag markets

But market-watcher Louis Navellier warned there was still plenty more volatility to come.

"If history repeats, we could be down tomorrow, then up on Wednesday, then down on Thursday and possibly up on Friday," he said in a commentary.

"So just get used to these up-down, up-down oscillations because they are going to continue," he added.

"I want to remind investors to not get too excited when the market rallies because it is going to continue to oscillate. There is just too much uncertainty out there."