After tropical depression Maymay, another cyclone may enter PAR on Oct. 13 — PAGASA

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

(PAGASA / FACEBOOK)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) continues to monitor a tropical depression east of Southern Luzon as it may enter the country’s area of responsibility on Thursday, Oct. 13.

The tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of up to 45 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 55 kph, was last observed at a distance of 2,020 kilometers east of Southern Luzon, according to PAGASA’s 11 a.m. advisory on Thursday.

It was moving northeastward at a speed of 20 kph.

“The tropical depression is forecast to decelerate as it moves generally north-northeastward in the next 12 hours before turning northward to northwestward while gaining speed. On the track forecast, the tropical depression may enter the PAR region on Thursday (Oct. 13) morning or afternoon. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will move generally westward towards extreme Northern Luzon,” PAGASA said.

Based on initial analysis, the tropical depression may enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Thursday and approach the country’s landmass on Sunday, Oct. 16, said PAGASA Weather Division chief Jun Galang.

The next tropical cyclone will be named “Neneng.”

Galang added that PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of a landfall over Northern Luzon or Central Luzon.

“Current track and intensity forecast shows that there is a high likelihood that tropical cyclone wind signals will be hoisted over Batanes and several provinces in Northern Luzon. The highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted is TCWS #2 (tropical cyclone wind signal number 2,” PAGASA said.

The State weather bureau pointed out that the passage of the tropical cyclone over extreme Northern Luzon may bring heavy rainfall over the area beginning Saturday, Oct. 15.

Aside from this tropical cyclone, a tropical depression with the local name “Maymay” is being monitored as it may make landfall over Aurora province or northern Quezon province by Wednesday, Oct. 12.

Circulation near Palawan has potential to become cyclone

Galang said PAGASA is also monitoring a circulation west of Palawan that may also form into a tropical cyclone.

However, it may only affect some portions of Palawan as it will eventually move away from the country. 

Possibility of LPA developing into tropical depression not ruled out — PAGASA

The LPA was seen 375 kilometers east of Surigao City, PAGASA said in an advisory issued at 11 a.m.

MANILA, Philippines — State weather bureau PAGASA said Friday it is not ruling out the possibility of a low pressure area off Mindanao becoming a tropical depression.

The LPA was seen 375 kilometers east of Surigao City, PAGASA said in an advisory issued at 11 a.m.

“The development of this LPA into a tropical depression is not ruled out. It is embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone affecting Visayas and Mindanao,” it said.

According to PAGASA, the weather disturbance will dump moderate to heavy rains over Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Visayas, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, northern portion of Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands in the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile, light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over the southern portion of Quezon province, Romblon, Marinduque, and the rest of Bicol region, Visayas and Mindanao.

“Under these conditions, scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA said.

Metro Manila will experience isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized thunderstorms on Friday.

Weather forecasters are also monitoring a tropical cyclone outside the Philippine area of responsibility. It was last seen over 2,000 km east of Mindanao. — Gaea Katreena Cabico

Isang' intensifies into tropical storm — PAGASA

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz, Manila Bulletin

Tropical cyclone “Isang” (international name “Omais”) has intensified into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea on Friday evening, Aug. 20, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 p.m. bulletin.

PAGASA said that storm Isang has maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

Its location was estimated 835 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon as of 10 p.m.

PAGASA said the storm is still not expected to have a direct effect on the country until it leaves the Philippine area of responsibility on Sunday, Aug. 22.

Isang may continue to intensify until Saturday evening, Aug. 21 when it is likely to reach its peak intensity.

“A weakening trend may commence by Sunday which may result in Isang being downgraded to tropical depression category by Monday evening (Aug. 23),” PAGASA said.

The State weather bureau pointed out that the easterlies or the warm winds coming from the Pacific Ocean remain the dominant weather system that may bring partly cloudy to cloudy conditions across the country in the next 24 hours.

However, there is a high chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon or evening.

PAGASA warned the public against flash floods or landslides that may occur during severe thunderstorms, which are often associated with short-lived heavy rain, lightning, thunder, gusty winds, and sometimes hail.

Cyclone May Enter the Philippines This Week

By Helen Flores (The Philippine Star)

State meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a developing storm off the Pacific Ocean that could enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) later this week.

Jori Loiz, senior weather forecaster of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said the looming cyclone was located some 1,500 kilometers east of the PAR as of yesterday afternoon.

He warned the developing weather disturbance is likely to reach the typhoon category as it hovers over the Pacific Ocean in the next few days.

Loiz told The STAR of two scenarios for the cyclone. The most likely is that the storm could intensify further but will veer north towards Japan. The second scenario is the cyclone will intensity into a typhoon and enter the PAR on Friday.

“The movement of the developing cyclone will depend on the high-pressure area northeast of the Philippines,” Loiz said, noting that the HPA has not moved in the past days.

“The most possible scenario is it will enter the PAR but will recurve toward east of Japan… But if the HPA will not move, the cyclone, which could be a strong one, could make landfall in the Philippines,” he added.

He noted that the location of the looming cyclone is also the place where Super Typhoon Yolanda formed last year.

“Hopefully, the HPA will move, because we expect this to be really strong. It is still far and could gain more strength while over the sea,” Loiz said.

He said one or two cyclones are likely to enter the Philippines this month, warning that cyclones during this time of the year usually make landfall.

The usual track of the cyclones during the latter part of the year is Visayas and Mindanao.

On Nov. 8 last year, Yolanda slammed the Visayas, leaving more than 6,000 people dead and 1,700 missing. Strong storms Pablo and Sendong hit Mindanao in December.

Meanwhile, Loiz said fair weather is expected in most parts of the country in the next three days, apart from isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

He said a low-pressure area (LPA) that dumped rains in Mindanao and parts of Visayas and Luzon over the weekend was spotted at 75 km west southwest of Romblon, Romblon as of 10 a.m. yesterday.

The LPA was likely to dissipate or continue to cross Southern Luzon towards the West Philippine Sea, where it could regain strength, he said.

Rain, rain, rain

MANILA, Philippines - Tropical depression "Vinta," the fifth cyclone of the country this month and the 22nd for the year, entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday.

"Vinta" was spotted 1,150 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes as of 4 a.m., moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez said in a state news report that so far, Vinta is not affecting the country and no public storm warning signal has been raised. However, the cyclone can still intensify while it is at sea.

Perez said that if "Vinta" sustains its current direction and speed, it may make landfall over Northern and Central Luzon by Wednesday or Thursday.

PAGASA said Vinta's forecast location by Wednesday morning was 600 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes by Wednesday morning, 300 km East of Baler, Aurora by Thursday morning and by Friday morning at 180 km west of Baguio City.

Ilocos, Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Metro Manila will continue to experience cloudy skies and isolated rain showers especially in the evening and afternoon due to the northeast monsoon.

New Potential Storm Enters The Philippines

A potential tropical cyclone entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday morning, the state weather bureau reported.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astrological Services Administration (PAGASA) said that a low pressure area (LPA) was estimated at 580 kilometers Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

PAGASA said that new weather system will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the eastern areas of Mindanao and may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

It added that eastern Visayas will also experience rainshowers and thunderstorms.

The weather bureau said that the LPA may intensify into a tropical cyclone in three days or by Monday.

The new cyclone will be named "Nando," the fourth this month and 14th to enter the country this year.