AT A GLANCE
Cyclone tracks in July show that some are "landfalling," or passing through, the Philippines, while others are "recurving," or not directly affecting the country.
- The names of the next tropical cyclones on PAGASA’s list are Dodong, Egay, Falcon, and Goring.
- Although there are tropical cyclones that do not make landfall, some of them can intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat,” which may cause rains over the western parts of the country.
Three or four tropical cyclones may enter or develop within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in July, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
The names of the next tropical cyclones on PAGASA’s list are Dodong, Egay, Falcon, and Goring.
Based on the PAGASA’s climatological record, there are four potential cyclone tracks in July.
The cyclone does not make landfall because it recurves or moves away from the country;
Makes landfall over the country’s extreme northern Luzon islands;
Makes landfall and traverses the northern and central parts of Luzon;
Makes landfall and crosses the southern portion of Luzon.
Tropical cyclone climatological tracks in July within the Philippine area of responsibility or PAR (PAGASA)
PAGASA noted that although there are tropical cyclones that do not make landfall, some of them can intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat,” which may cause rains over the western parts of the country.
Furthermore, PAGASA said that while an El Niño is expected to form, the country may still experience “near-to-above-normal” rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, as well as “near-normal” rainfall in Mindanao, with the exception of Davao del Sur, which may experience “below-normal” rainfall in July.
By August, the country may receive “near-normal” rainfall with patches of below-normal rainfall in some parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Caraga.
In most parts of Luzon, the probability of above-normal rainfall is higher, except in Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao, where the probability of below-normal rainfall is higher, PAGASA pointed out.
By September, most parts of Luzon, some parts of Visayas, and Central Mindanao may have near-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country may receive below-normal rainfall.
“[There is a] high probability for above-normal rainfall in most parts of northwestern Luzon, while the rest of the country has a high probability of below-normal rainfall,” PAGASA said.
Meanwhile, PAGASA said on June 27 that 66 provinces across the country may experience dry conditions by the end of the year.
By October, most of Luzon and Visayas may have below-normal rainfall, while most of Mindanao, with the exception of Caraga, may have near-normal rainfall, with a higher probability of below-normal rainfall (40 to 45 percent chance) in most parts of the country.
By November, below-normal rainfall may prevail in most of the country, except in some parts of Visayas and Mindanao, where near-normal rainfall is likely.
“[There is a] probability for below-normal rainfall (50-60 percent chance) in most parts of the country,” PAGASA said.
By December, most parts of Luzon may experience “way-below-normal” rainfall, while below-normal rainfall may affect the rest of the country.
