Just Wild Weather?

My column in Mindanao Daily, BusinessWeek Mindanao and Cagayan de Oro Times

In the Philippines, we experience the rainy season right now. "Breakthrough" insights into atmospheric dynamics are emerging from "high-maths" —scrutiny of satellite data, say scientists. Their Nature magazine article identifies "significant connections" between extreme rain events, often far apart. Their premise: global rainfall distribution stems "probably" from planetary waves named after the late Swedish-born American meteorologist Carl-Gustaf Rossby. Just wild weather or is it a climate disruption?

Normally, monsoon rains over northern Queensland last a "few days," says Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. Unprecedented downpours began a week ago, with more forecast and troops sent to a disaster zone. Evacuations have included these residents of Rossela, near Townsville, and German and Swiss tourists plucked from the Diamantina River catchment by a local farmer using his private helicopter.

Indonesia, like much of Asia including the Philippines i.e., weathers annual monsoon rains. Last weekend, the Sulawesi islands counted its toll: at least 70 people were killed as rivers burst their banks and landslides buried village homes. Authorities said a state of emergency would remain in place.

My home country Germany experiences records all-time hottest June temperature. Imagine: the last day of June 2019 has beaten all previous temperature highs for the month. Heat-related deaths have been reported in several European countries. Yes, whole Europe is melting.

A pharmacy sign in Carpentras, a village in southeastern France, which shortly held the country's all-time heat record of 44.3 degrees on Friday. The record was topped again later in the afternoon in the southern village of Villevieille, 100 kilometers (60 miles) to the east, which measured a thermometer-busting 45.1 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit).

Germany set its all-time highest June temperature on last Sunday, with 38.9 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate. The country has been baking in an early summer heat wave; however, Germany's all-time high of 40.3 degrees Celsius still stands.

Fifty-seven runners at Hamburg's half marathon were hospitalized on Sunday after many collapsed in temperatures of up to 35 degrees Celsius, officials said. Some 141 runners needed treatment in what fire service officials described as "an emergency with mass casualties."

Temperatures in the country's central Rhine-Main region and into eastern Germany were expected to reach up to 39 degrees on Sunday, according to the German Weather Service (DWD).

Organizers of Sunday's Frankfurt Ironman event made contingency plans to keep athletes from overheating.

As huge crowds gathered in Paris for the annual gay pride parade, firefighters sprayed water on revelers, some of whom used rainbow-colored fans and umbrellas to counter the heat, which was expected to hit 38 degrees.

Heat-related deaths have been reported in Germany and France, mainly among the elderly. At least eight people drowned in bathing accidents across the two countries.

France's new record temperature of 45.9 degrees was set on Friday near the southern city of Montpellier, the Meteo-France weather service said. It is just the seventh European nation — along with Bulgaria, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece and North Macedonia — to record temperatures above 45 degrees.

During Sunday prayers in Rome, Pope Francis said he was praying "for those who have suffered the most from the consequences of this heat."

Meteorologists blamed a blast of hot air from northern Africa for the scorching early European summer, but temperatures are set to drop for the remainder of the week over much of Europe.

Drownings and wildfires - the amazing side effects of climate change.The heatwave sparked large blazes including in Spain, where firefighters on Saturday fought wildfires just as they finally contained another inferno after nearly 72 hours.Wildfires burned down several houses and at least 550 hectares (1,359 acres) of land in the south of France as temperatures hit upwards of 45 degrees on Saturday.The blistering heat also claimed the lives of a 17-year-old harvest worker in Spain and a 72-year-old homeless man in Italy.

Just wild weather or climate change? Do you know the answer, my dear readers?

Climate Change: 2016 Likely to be Warmest Year Yet

Climate change: Data shows 2016 likely to be warmest year yet - also for the Philippines.

By Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent

• 18 January 2017
 
• From the sectionScience & Environment
 
• 464comments

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Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES

Image captionRecord warm temperatures were seen all over the world in 2016, including the Arctic

Temperature data for 2016 shows it is likely to have edged ahead of 2015 as the world's warmest year.

Data from Nasa and the UK Met Office shows temperatures were about 0.07 degrees Celsius above the 2015 mark.

Although the Met Office increase was within the margin of error, Nasa says that 2016 was the third year in a row to break the record.

The El Niño weather phenomenon played a role, say scientists, but the main factor was human emissions of CO2.

The latest conclusions won't come as a much of a shock to observers, as the likely outcome was trailed heavily towards the end of last year.

Animation: Climate change explained in six graphics

What is climate change?

So warm was the early part of 2016 - influenced by a powerful El Niño - that some leading climate scientists were predicting as early as May that a new record was likely.

During an El Niño, a band of unusually warm ocean water develops in parts of the Pacific. The phenomenon affects the climate globally, disrupting weather patterns.

Media captionHow global temperature has changed

According to Nasa figures, 2016 is now the warmest year in a record that dates back to 1880.

"2015 has been the warmest year on record up until now, so 2016 has just beaten that and and it's beaten that by about 0.1- 0.12 of a degree Celsius, which doesn't seem like a lot, but in terms of the year to year variations it's actually huge," Dr Gavin Schmidt from Nasa told BBC News.

"This is a very clear record that we're seeing. It is driven mainly by changes in the tropical Pacific where we had an El Niño event that produced a lot of warmth. But we've also seen long term trends in warming mostly due to the increasing greenhouse gases."

Image copyrightNOAA

Image captionMany parts of the world had their warmest recorded year in 2016

Another factor that has affected temperatures in 2016 is the unusual warmth in the Arctic.

The sea-ice covering the Arctic reached its second lowest level (in terms of extent) in September 2016. The sea-ice grows in autumn and winter and shrinks each spring and summer.

While the sea-ice extent last year didn't break the record, the mercury stayed high and the smaller amount of ice now present in the region is at unprecedented levels for the time of year.

A number of meteorological agencies from around the world have released their figures today. They all suggest that warming in 2016 was a record that had an important contribution from El Niño.

The Met Office says it contributed about 0.2C to the annual average for 2016. However, researchers believe that while this is substantial, it is not the whole story.

"We understand the contribution El Niño makes fairly well and we've seen it many times," said Prof Ellie Highwood from the University of Reading.

"But even if you take that contribution away, we would expect 2015 and 2016 to still be the warmest years we've seen, so a majority of it is coming from global warming and the greenhouse effect."

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which pulls together temperature data from a number of sources, agrees that 2016 broke the record by 0.07C.

Not all of the reports on temperature data in 2016 are clear that the warmest-year record has been broken.

Century dominated by records

The Met Office says that 2016 was 0.77 above the long term rate, but with a plus or minus error margin of 0.1C, meaning that last year was at the very least, one of the two warmest years on record.

"The final figures confirm that 2016 was yet another extremely warm year," said Peter Stott from the Met Office.

"The temperature for last year was very close to the year before, temperatures for 2016 exceeding those for 2015 by a small margin."

Regardless of the small margins, when the new data on 2016 is included, 15 of the warmest 16 years on record have now occurred since 2001.

According to Noaa (the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the only year from the 20th Century to break into the top 16 is 1998, and which ranks seventh warmest.

This prolonged period of warming was having significant impacts around the world.

Image copyrightWMO

Image captionThe Arctic region exceeded the long term average by up to 6C through most of 2016

"We have also broken sea ice minimum records in the Arctic and Antarctic," said Petteri Taalas from the WMO.

"The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average. The persistent loss of sea-ice is driving weather, climate and ocean circulation patterns in other parts of the world. We also have to pay attention to the potential release of methane from melting permafrost," he said.

Of great concern to scientists and politicians is the fact that the newly published temperature data shows the Earth is once again more than one degree warmer than pre-industrial times, and edging closer to the threshold of 1.5C set under the Paris climate pact.

With the Trump administration about to take office in the US, there are concerns that political support for climate action might fade. This would be a big mistake according to scientists.

"Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st Century and shows no signs of slowing down," said Prof Mark Maslin, from University College London.

"The decarbonisation of the global economy is the ultimate goal to prevent the worst effects of climate change. The hottest year on record is such a clear warning siren that even President-elect Trump cannot ignore it."

Researchers say that 2017 is unlikely to break the warming record but will be in the top five hottest years.

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Marce to hit Cebu today

 (The Freeman) | Updated November 25, 2016 - 12:00am

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It was not fog that hung over the skies of Cebu yesterday, but thick clouds brought on by tropical depression Marce, according to the state weather bureau. Storm signal number 1 was raised over Cebu City yesterday leaving hundreds of passengers stranded in the different seaports. Aldo Nelbert Banaynal

CEBU, Philippines - After causing thousands to be stranded yesterday, tropical depression Marce is expected to make landfall in Cebu early this morning.

PAGASA-Visayas weather specialist Bolivar Artiaga said Marce will continue to bring more rains and people in landslide-prone areas should be watchful.

"Magbantay g’yud ta labi na kadtong mga landslide-prone areas kay posible mag landslide tungod aning sige og uwan-uwan," said Artiaga.

He also said that yesterday almost the entire Cebu sky was engulfed by thick clouds that lowered visibility, it was not fog as many thought.

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"Di to siya fog. Tungod lang gyud to sa uwan nga niubos ang visibility. Unya dag-um sad kaayo ang Cebu," Artiaga said.

Based on the PAGASA weather bulletin as of 8 p.m. last night, Marce made landfall in Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte. The estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 300 kilometers of the tropical depression.

Freeman ( Article MRec ), pagematch: 1, sectionmatch:

Signal no. 1 is still in effect in Biliran, Southern Samar, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique and Guimaras in the Visayas.

Marce is expected to be out of the country by Monday afternoon.

A total of 52 vessels, 17 motorbancas and 81 cargo vessels were not allowed to travel from Cebu to other provinces due to unfavorable weather brought about by tropical depression Marce yesterday.

Paul Alcances, duty officer of the Philippine Coast Guard Cebu Station said that as of 8 p.m. last night, 2,522 passengers were stranded after vessels plying Leyte,  Bohol, Camotes,  Cagayan de Oro, Masbate, Sta. Fe in Bantayan Island,  San Carlos  City, Escalante in Negros Oriental and Dipolog routes were barred from travelling.

In the Mactan-Cebu International Airport, four flights plying the Cebu-Surigao/Surigao-Cebu routes were cancelled due to the bad weather, said MCIA corporate communication junior manager Malou Mozo.

Education is priority

Despite the tropical depression, some schools in the city will have classes today as Mayor Tomas Osmeña did not order to suspend the classes.

Saying education is his priority, Osmeña said he does not see the need to hit the panic button.

“There’s classes. The only exception would be in certain schools which are exposed to slides, the children cannot go home, or if they will have to cross the river like Barangay Buot,” he said, adding schools in barangays Busay and Sapangdaku should also suspend classes.

However, he clarified that school principals have the discretion to suspend the classes depending on the situation of the schools today.

“I have the responsibility of not hitting the panic button. If there’s a real danger, there’s always a danger, but if you talk about lesser danger, you don’t need to give many instructions because people will get confused,” he said.

Cebu City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council head Nagiel Bañacia said the suspension of classes shall be treated on a case-to-case basis depending on the situation.

With this, Bañacia encouraged the public to be alert, saying there are 19 upland barangays prone to landslides while five urban barangays are prone to flooding.

The mountain barangays that are highly susceptible of landslides are Lusaran, Binaliw, Guba, Budlaan, Malubog, Buot, Busay, Sirao, Taptap, Adlaon, Tagba-o, Tabunan, Pung-ol Sibugay, Sudlon 1, Sudlon 2, Sinsin, Buhisan, Pamutan, and Sapangdaku.

The urban barangays that are highly susceptible to flood are Bonbon, Labangon, Kasambagan, Kinasang-an, and Mabolo.

He said responders are on standby to respond to any eventualities while contractor’s association has committed to deploy their heavy equipment in case of landslides in the upland barangays.

For emergencies, he said the public may call numbers: 032-2621424 and 0923-5248222.

Mandaue City Mayor Gabriel Luigi Quisumbing yesterday declared suspension of classes in all public elementary schools due to the bad weather.

"In light of the impending landfall of TS Marce in Surigao this afternoon which is expected to bring heavy rains to Cebu, afternoon classes in Elementary Public Schools in Mandaue City are hereby cancelled," Quisumbing said.

In Talisay, the city also declared class suspension yesterday and today for all levels.

The tropical depression may bring heavy rains and the city government said this might affect Barangay Manipis which is prone to landslide, and other barangays that are prone to flooding.

Code red

The Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office placed the whole province of Cebu under Code Red: Charlie.

“Base sa protocol, naa man gitawag sa alpha, bravo, charlie. Charlie naa ta, Code Red: Alert Charlie. Naa ta sa gitawag nga minimum critical preparation,” PDRRMO head Baltazar Tribunalo said.

With the storm signal, the Cebu provincial government suspended classes in all levels in public schools throughout the province yesterday and today.

Private schools, on the other hand, were advised to dismiss classes, especially in areas prone to flashfloods and/or landslides.

The Cebu provincial government fielded all heavy equipment units in the northern and southern parts of Cebu for immediate response in case of landslides. The PDRRMO also warned coastal residents of possible storm surges.

Church refuge

Meanwhile, Cebu Archbishop Jose Palma yesterday asked churches and chapels throughout the province to accommodate any evacuees who may be displaced or seeking safety from landslides or floods. — Mitchelle L. Palaubsanon, Kristine B. Quintas, Le Phyllis F. Antojado, Jean Marvette A. Demecillo, Garry B. Lao, Iris Mariani B. Algabre (FREEMAN)

Philippines to Simplify Weather Warnings to Reduce Loss of Lives

The Philippines will simplify its weather warnings to make them easier to understand in order to prevent the annual loss of hundreds of lives from natural calamities, officials said Wednesday.

The state weather service of one of the world’s most disaster-prone nations is working with linguists to ensure that the threat posed by typhoons, floods and other events would be fully understood by people, they said.

“People need to be told in a language they can understand the dangers that they face,” said Roberto Añonuevo, executive director of the government’s Filipino Language Commission.

“Typhoons and storms are a common occurrence, so they become complacent. This will help them to respond. This is potentially life-saving,” he told AFP.

Giant walls of seawater, called “storm surges” generated by Haiyan, the strongest ever typhoon to hit land, were blamed for most of the 7,350 lives lost in the central Philippines a year ago.

Even though the hardest-hit areas were warned beforehand, the weather service and other officials later admitted that the victims were unfamiliar with the term “storm surge”, which they said failed to adequately convey the deadly threat.

President Benigno S. C. Aquino III has been among the weather service’s most severe critics, often lecturing its forecasters publicly to use layman’s terms in its bulletins.

About 20 typhoons and storms hit the country each year, triggering floods and landslides that kill hundreds.

Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are also an ever-present threat in the Asian archipelago that forms part of a “Ring of Fire” of Pacific islands formed by volcanic activity.

“People with lower levels of education at times have trouble understanding technical terms,” conceded Lani Aquino, a public relations officer for the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration.

“So what happens is they do not make the necessary precautions for certain meteorological events,” Ms. Aquino, no relation to the President, told AFP.

The weather service spokeswoman said it was reviewing a 300-word glossary of more easily understood weather terms prepared by the language commission, including the words for storm surges in the country’s major dialects. -- AFP

Disaster-weary Philippines

Disaster-weary Philippine residents mopped up Thursday after four days of torrential rain that officials said had killed 16 people and forced nearly 400,000 others from flooded homes.

Residents swept out their muddy floors as floods receded, having covered half the metropolis on Tuesday, rescue officials said.

"It's all mud and garbage, and our television set and electric fan were destroyed," shoemaker's wife Flordeliza Miranda told AFP as she returned to the family's shanty beside the San Mateo river that went under water on Tuesday.

"We have not eaten anything since last night," said the mother-of-two, who had slept in a makeshift tent atop a nearby bridge amid the deluge.
Philippine National Red Cross secretary-general Gwendolyn Pang said floods have receded in all but about 10 percent of the metropolis of 12 million people.

"We continue to give support to victims of the monsoon (rains)," she told AFP, adding the focus of the relief effort was shifting from emergency food aid to longer-term needs for the displaced.

The bad weather killed 16 people, said Reynaldo Balido, spokesman for the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, which raised the death toll by one with the body of a drowned man found east of Manila.
More than 186,000 people remained at government-run shelters early Thursday, while nearly 200,000 others are staying with friends and relatives, he added.

Low-level floods however persisted in several nearby provinces.

"The floods are not that deep, mostly knee-high or thigh-high. There is no need for more rescues. However, the waters are stagnant," Balido added.
In Manila, trading resumed at the Philippine Stock Exchange and offices were getting back to work, but most schools have declared emergency holidays for the rest of the week as buildings are cleaned up or used as evacuation centres.

Since Sunday, Manila and neighbouring provinces have experienced the most intense rains in four years.

Rampaging floodwaters swept through low-lying communities, forcing thousands to crowded evacuation centres like gyms, where people were forced to sleep in close quarters on the floor with cardboard boxes for beddings.

In Cavite province near Manila, the floods dislodged concrete tombs at one cemetery, depositing them on the side of a highway, an AFP photographer saw.

State weather forecaster Bernie de Leon said 671.6 millimetres (26.4 inches) of rain fell on Manila between Sunday and Wednesday -- more than the monthly average of 504.2 millimetres for August.

The seasonal monsoon had been worsened by Tropical Storm Trami, which went on to hit Fujian province in China on Thursday.

The Southeast Asian archipelago endures about 20 major storms or typhoons annually, generally in the second half of the year and many of them deadly.

"This is the worst since (Ketsana)," de Leon told AFP, referring to a 2009 storm that killed more than 460 people and left 80 percent of Manila submerged.

"We expect the weather to gradually improve over the coming days," he added.

ComVal Suffers More...

COMPOSTELA VALLEY PROVINCE (Jan. 23)----- The rain has stopped but the Provincial, Municipal, and Barangay Disaster Risk Reduction Management Councils remain ready with their respective rescue teams and keep on watch for any sudden change of the weather condition.

There were family evacuees in the province as rains poured in since Friday evening (January 18).  Per flooding incident official report issued by the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) as of 8:00 a.m. of January 21, 2013, there were 2,143 families who vacated for safety to the identified evacuation centers.  As of 8:00 a.m. of January 22, the number of families became 441.  As the water subsides, those residents of flooded areas which are accessible already have started to go home.

Governor Arturo T. Uy being the Chairman of the PDRRM Council earlier issued an order for the suspension of classes in schools for the safety of the students and teachers considering the flood risks. But today, classes have resumed already.

PDRRM Officer Raul Villocino said that with the experienced weather disturbance, the people are advised to stay alert and abide to any issued public warnings and safety measures implemented by the local authorities. 

Thank you Grace Almedilla, ids-comval for your update...

 

Bad Weather in The Philippines

A friend of mine, living in the U.S., emailed me this morning and asked, if it is true, that Mindanao is expecting another taifun.

An active low pressure area will bring widespread rains over Visayas and Eastern Mindanao, according to the Philippine Atmosphere, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). And, I must confess, while writing this piece, it's starting again raining here in Davao City.

PAGASA, in its weather synopsis, said that the ALPA was estimated based on satellite and surfaced data at 350 kilometers east of Southern Mindanao. The APLA is now diminishing its chances to become a tropical cyclone as it approaches land. 

For its wind and sea alert, the weather bureau said moderate to strong winds blowing from the east  will prevail over Luzon and coming from the east to northeast over Visayas and Mindanao. 

Guys, where ever you are located, please be safe.

Year of Disasters

Editorial (Friday 30, 2011) Mindanao Daily Mirror - with friendly permission by publisher and editor-in-chief "Tita" Marietta Siongco... .

"Year 2011 will exit to history tomorrow as the year of disasters for our country. Of the many typhoons that hit the Philippines this year. Ondoy and Sendong caused the heaviest damage in this supposed "tropical paradise" in terms of lives lost and number of families left homeless. Internationally, 2011 is considered "Record Year for Bad Weather".

Hopefully, Sendong which was not even considered a typhoon by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) but only categorized as a "storm" spoiled the Christmas session as it devastated many areas with just a little over a week before Christmas Day. The Yuletide season is considered the joyous time of the year, especially by Filipinos who celebrate Christmas the longest in the world.

Hardest hit by Sendong was Northern Mindanao, particularly the neighboring cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan.  The combined death toll of the two cities reached over a thousand with still hundreds of missing. And just at the year was about to end, several areas  in Eastern and Southern Mindanao were hit by flash floods caused by heavy rains, incuding Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Compostela Valley in the Davao region and Bukidnon. Even nearby Tagum City was not spared by the storm wrath.

With just a few days before New Year, the town of Kapalong in Davao del Norte and Valencia City in Bukidnon were inundated by floodwaters. According to the MINDANEWS report which the  MIRROR carried in its front page yesteray, 10 out of 11 barangays in Valencia City were flooded with floodwaters rising up to four meters high in many homes, displacing no less than 1,150 families.

A heartening development in the wake of tragedy that hit Northern Mindanao a week or so before Christmas Day is that many provinces and cities in the country donated food, clothing, blankets, thousands of bottles of water and other relief materials to the flood victims in CdO and Iligan worth 2 million pesos, plus 1 million in cash.

And just the other day, the Jesuits in Cagayan de Oro donated a five-hectare land as relocation site for the Sendong victims in the so-called "city of the golden friendship".

Minus 6 Grad und Schneefall/6 degress below Zero and Snowfall

Waehrend ich diese Zeilen schreibe, erhalte ich gerade den neuesten Wetterbericht aus Deutschland. Nun, ich war noch nie ein Freund vom Winter. Vielleicht war dies auch ein Grund, warum ich immer in die Heimat meiner Familie auswandern wollte. So sah es in unserer Umgebung am 1.1.2005 (Neujahr) aus. Aehnlich ist es auch heute, wenn auch der Himmel wolkenverhangen ist und gelegentliche Regenschauer ueber uns herniedergehen. Frohe Weihnachten!

While writing this post, I am receiving the last weather forecast from Germany. Honestly, I have never been a fan of winter time. Maybe this has been one reason for me and my family to move to the Philippines for good. Watch the photo: that's how our surroundings looked like on New Year 2005. Today it's very cloudy with some rain showers. Anyway: Merry Christmas!