AT A GLANCE
- A weak El Niño is comparable to a person having a low-grade fever, a moderate El Niño is similar to having a moderate fever, and a strong El Niño is comparable to having “convulsions.”
- There is an 86 percent chance that the El Niño will become a moderate event around November-December 2023 or January 2024.
- Meanwhile, there is a 56 percent chance that the El Niño will become strong by December 2023 or January-February 2024.
- The effects of El Niño on the country may last longer during a strong event.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the El Niño climate phenomenon may intensify in the coming months and reach a “moderate to strong” level by the end of 2023 or early 2024.
Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said in a televised public briefing on Thursday, July 6, that there is an 86 percent chance that the El Niño will become a moderate event around November-December 2023 or January 2024.
Meanwhile, there is a 56 percent chance that the El Niño will become strong by December 2023 or January-February 2024.
(PIXABAY)
PAGASA confirmed the presence of “weak” El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific on July 4.
According to Solis, a weak El Niño is comparable to a person having a low-grade fever, a moderate El Niño is similar to having a moderate fever, and a strong El Niño is comparable to having “convulsions.”
When an El Niño is strong, the sea warms up significantly, causing the country to experience warmer temperatures and less rainfall than it would during a weak or moderate event, she explained.
This also means that the effects of El Niño on the country may last longer during a strong event.
Solis warned that the country may experience a dry spell or drought due to lower rainfall forecast for the coming months.
There is also an increasing possibility that air temperatures will be warmer particularly next year, she said.
‘Habagat’ may still bring some rains
Solis said most of the country may still experience some rains from the southwest monsoon, also known as the habagat, which will last until September.
During this period, there are still tropical cyclones, other rain-bearing weather systems, and the habagat, which can be sometimes enhanced by cyclones, she pointed out.
Solis said there may still be 10 to 14 cyclones that may enter or form within the country’s area of responsibility until the end of the year—two to four in July, two or three in August, two or three in September, two or three in October, one or two in November, and one or two in December.
She noted that although there are tropical cyclones that may not make landfall, some of them can intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat,” which may cause rains over the western parts of the country.
However, there are early manifestations of El Niño conditions during the habagat season, one of which is the decrease in the country’s cyclone activity, she added.
Only three tropical cyclones have affected the country so far this year. These are cyclones Amang, Betty, and Chedeng.
There has been no tropical cyclone recorded in the country so far this July, but based on PAGASA’s climatological record, two to four typhoons may enter or form within the Philippine area of responsibility this month.
Solis said the widespread effect of El Niño, manifested by drier and warmer conditions, may be felt as early as October.
