ERSTER BESTÄTIGTER FALL IN BAYERN

Schon 106 Tote und rund 4500 Infizierte in China – jetzt hat das Corona-Virus auch Deutschland erreicht. Das bayerische Gesundheitsministerium hat bestätigt, dass sich ein Mann aus dem Landkreis Starnberg (Oberbayern) mit dem Corona-Virus infiziert hat.

Der Patient befinde sich nach Angaben des Landesamts für Gesundheit und Lebensmittelsicherheit (LGL) „klinisch in einem guten Zustand“. Er werde medizinisch überwacht und sei isoliert untergebracht.

Die engen Kontaktpersonen des infizierten Mannes würden „ausführlich aufgeklärt und über mögliche Symptome, Hygienemaßnahmen und Übertragungswege informiert“, teilte das Ministerium ferner mit. Das Risiko für die Bevölkerung in Bayern, sich mit dem Erreger zu infizieren, werde vom zuständigen Team des LGL sowie vom Robert Koch-Institut (RKI) „derzeit als gering erachtet“. Weitere Details wollen das bayerische Gesundheitsministerium und das LGL am Dienstagvormittag bei einer Pressekonferenz bekanntgeben.

Virus-Alarm in China – jetzt reagiert die Bundesregierung. Ein Krisenstab entscheidet, ob Deutsche ausgeflogen werden.

Die Sorgen vor der weiteren Verbreitung des Corona-Virus haben dem Dax auf Talfahrt geschickt.

Das bayerische Gesundheitsministerium und das LGL wollen die Öffentlichkeit am Dienstagvormittag bei einer Pressekonferenz informieren. Der Ministeriumssprecher betonte: „Das Risiko für die Bevölkerung in Bayern, sich mit dem neuartigen Coronavirus zu infizieren, wird von der „Task Force Infektiologie“ des LGL und vom Robert Koch-Institut (RKI) derzeit als gering erachtet.“

Das neue Virus stammt ursprünglich vermutlich von einem Markt in Wuhan, wo es wohl von dort gehandelten Wildtieren auf den Menschen übersprang. China hat im Kampf gegen eine weitere Ausbreitung drastische Maßnahmen ergriffen: In der Provinz Hubei wurden mehr als 45 Millionen Menschen weitgehend von der Außenwelt abgeschottet. Fern- und Nahverkehr wurden gestoppt.

Nach derzeitiger Einschätzung von Experten verläuft die neuartige Lungenkrankheit offenbar in den meisten Fällen mild, möglicherweise sogar ohne Symptome. Von den in China registrierten Todesfällen gehen die meisten nach bisherigen Erkenntnissen auf ältere Patienten mit schweren Vorerkrankungen zurück.

Der neue Erreger ist dem Virus hinter der Sars-Epidemie 2002/2003 sehr ähnlich. Damals hatte es nach Daten der Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) zwischen November 2002 und Juli 2003 lediglich neun Nachweise in Deutschland gegeben. Todesfälle gab es hier nicht.

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Coronavirus: Could it damage the global economy?

By Andrew Walker

BBC World Service economics correspondent

• 26 January 2020

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• Coronavirus outbreak

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China is struggling with a new virus that has already killed more than 20 people.

It is a serious health issue. The World Health Organization has called it an emergency for China, though not for the world, not so far at least.

Inevitably, it will have economic consequences. But how severe and how far will they spread?

Economists are very wary about putting any figures on it at this early stage.

But it is possible to identify what form the impact will take and to look at the economic damage done by previous similar episodes, notably the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome - better known as Sars - in 2002-3, which also began in China.

It is within China that there already is some economic damage. Travel restrictions have been imposed in parts of the country at a time [the Chinese New Year] when many people travel. So the tourism business is already being hit.

Transport hub

Consumer spending on entertainment and gifts will also be affected. For entertainment, many will be reluctant to take part in activities outside the home that could lead to exposure to the virus. Many people are sure to have cancelled plans of their own volition to avoid risks of exposure to the disease.

The impact is magnified by the fact that Wuhan, the city where it began, is an important transport hub.

Travel restrictions are also a problem for any business that needs to move goods or people around. Industrial supply chains will be affected. Some deliveries may be disrupted and some will become more expensive.

There will be lost economic activity as a result of people not being able or willing to travel to work.

Recovery rate

There will also be a direct financial cost from treating patients borne by health insurers (public and private) and by patients.

Outside China, much will depend on the spread of the disease. If there are outbreaks elsewhere some of the same effects may be apparent, although almost certainly on a much smaller scale.

The extent of these effects will depend to a large degree on how easily transmissible the virus proves to be and the death rate among those infected. Encouragingly many people so far have made full recoveries, though there have been tragic exceptions.

It is often the case that economic problems are quickly reflected by financial markets, where traders' views about what assets are worth are affected by their expectations about future developments.

Vaccine chance

On this occasion that have been some negative consequences for stock markets, particular in China. But they have not been large. Even the Shanghai Composite Index is higher than it was six months ago.

There are some businesses who could gain, such as drugs makers. What is immediately available is symptom relief. In the longer term there might be profitable opportunity in developing a vaccine against the virus.

Paul Stoffels, chief scientific officer at Johnson & Johnson told the BBC that his teams had already done the "basic work" on a vaccine. He thought it could be available in about a year.

There has also been a surge in demand for surgical masks and gloves to protect against becoming infected. Shares in Chinese companies that make these items - drugs and protective equipment - have seen some sharp price rises.

Quick recovery?

The best historical example to give guidance is probably the Sars outbreak.

One estimate suggested a cost to the global economy of $40bn (£30.5bn).

Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics, a London based consultancy, suggests that global growth was a full percentage point weaker in the second quarter of 2003 than it would have been without Sars. That is quite a substantial hit, but she also says it made up the ground quite quickly afterwards.

She says the picture is complicated by other factors that affected global growth at the time but she concludes "it is very hard to pick out any lasting damage to global GDP (economic activity) from Sars, which was an unusually severe and widespread virus".