Worldbank Downgrades Philippinen Growth Outlook

By Ted P. Torres (The Philippine Star) 
 

The World Bank has revised downward its economic growth projections for the Philippines this year and the next, warning that growth would largely depend on public spending, disaster reconstruction, and further structural reforms.

In a report, the World Bank said baseline growth projections were revised downward from the original 6.6 percent to 6.4 percent for 2014, and from the earlier 6.9 percent to 6.7 percent for 2015.

According to the World Bank, private consumption driven by strong remittance inflows would drive the economy “but growth will depend heavily on the ability of the government to ramp up spending.”

“An acceleration of reconstruction spending can support growth at above six percent,” the World Bank said.

A number of external and domestic factors could likewise pose risks to growth, it added.

External risks could come from disorderly policy normalization in high-income countries, a disorderly adjustment in China’s property market, political tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and territorial disputes with China.

On the domestic side, the main sources of risk are low government consumption, slow reconstruction spending, and domestic reform lags, in particular reforms to raise tax revenues needed to raise infrastructure and social services spending.

Inflation is projected to reach the ceiling of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ three-to five-percent target.

It will also force monetary tightening and greater use of macro-prudential measures, such as further increases in the RRR and policy rates.

The World Bank report, entitled East Asia Pacific Economic Update, warned that food supply could remain tight throughout 2014 because of poor harvests due to weather-related disturbances, and could be exacerbated by droughts due to El Niño.

In addition, because rice is a basic consumption necessity with inelastic demand, any delay in the importation of rice, which is controlled by the government, could result in sharp increases in rice prices. Moreover, short-term depreciation of the peso and higher fuel prices are sources of inflation.

The World Bank said growth can be sustained and made more inclusive by pursuing structural reforms and investing more in human and physical capital in the medium term. Key structural reforms include protecting property rights, promoting more competition, and simplifying regulations.

The report noted the government’s planned doubling of infrastructure spending to five percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and significant increases in health and education spending, which require new sources of revenues.

“This can be achieved through a package of tax policy and administrative reforms,” the World Bank said.

There is scope to increase tax revenues, by, for example, broadening the base and making the tax system simpler, more efficient, and more equitable, while simultaneously lowering certain tax rates to increase the political feasibility of such a package.

The government has successfully raised taxes by 1.2 percentage points of GDP in the last three years through the sin tax reform, improved tax administration, and higher growth.

Accelerating the current reform momentum would help the country yield additional tax revenues to create the fiscal space needed to enhance growth in the coming years.

Meanwhile, economic growth of developing East Asia is seen to slow down to 6.9 percent this year, from 7.2 percent in 2013 due to various external risks.

World Bank East Asia and Pacific regional vice-president Axel Vann Trotsenburg said the region has the potential to continue to grow at a higher rate and faster than other developing regions if policy makers implement an ambitious domestic reform agenda.

The region remains vulnerable to a sharp slowdown in China, which though unlikely to happen, could hurt commodity producers which include metal exporters in Mongolia and coal exporters in Indonesia.

Study Links Heat Waves in Asia to Climate Change

The report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, investigates the causes of a wide variety of extreme weather and climate events from around the world in 2013. Titled "Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective" the 84-page document examines the causes of 16 individual extreme events - including heat waves, rain, flood, droughts and storms - that occurred on four continents in 2013. 

Thirteen independent studies mentioned in the report - compiled by 92 scientists from around the globe – determined there was a link between extreme weather and the burning of fossil fuels. But while the authors found that human influence had substantially increased both the likelihood and severity of heat waves in places like Asia and Australia, it was more difficult to measure the influence of human activity on other events like droughts, heavy rain and storms.

Thomas Peterson, principal scientist at NOAA's National Climactic Data Center and one of the report's lead editors, says in an interview with  Deutsche Welle TV Berlin, that while scientists could not identify a linkage between human-caused global warming and some extreme weather events, the data gathered provides evidence that human activity has increased the intensity and likelihood of heat waves in Asian countries such as China, Japan and Korea.

Peterson: 'Human activity has influenced the strength of extreme weather or increased its likelihood'

Which extreme weather events did you focus on in Asia and why?

Thomas Peterson: Each of the four topics evaluated in Asia was selected by the author team for subjective reasons. Often because the event was of interest to them on a personal level, as it impacted them, their families and their friends. For instance, the report focuses on Japan, Korea and China which all experienced extremely hot summers in 2013.

The fourth topic focused on heavy rain in India. With an early arrival of monsoon-like atmospheric circulation in June, the heavy precipitation that occurred in northern India was a once-in-a-century event.

What were the key findings of the report?

The report found that long duration heat waves during the summer and prevailing warmth for annual conditions are becoming increasingly likely due to a warming planet, as much as 10 times more likely due to the current cumulative effects of human-induced climate change, as found for the Korean heat wave of summer 2013.

Extreme precipitation events of last year were found to have been much less influenced by human-induced climate change than extreme temperature events. Furthermore, prolonged cold waves have become much less likely, such that the severely cold 2013 winter over the United Kingdom was perhaps the most remarkable event of all those studied in 2013 - its probability of occurrence may have fallen 30-fold due to global warming alone.

However, there was no clear evidence of human influence on any of the three very intense storms examined, which included a surprising winter-like storm during autumn in the Pyrenees, an extreme blizzard across the US High Plains, and Cyclone 'Christian' that delivered damaging winds across northern Germany and southern Denmark.

To which extent did climate role play a role in extreme weather events in Asia last year?

All four events evaluated in Asia were found to indicate that human activity had influenced the strength of extreme weather or increased its likelihood. For instance, analyses of observed and simulated June precipitation provided evidence that human-caused climate change has increased the likelihood of much stronger precipitation in northern India, and made heat waves more likely to occur in Japan, Korea and Easter China.

How come human factors were found to have influenced some weather events, but not others? 

Natural variability was a prime cause of all events, just the randomness of the weather. For some of these events, in addition to the natural causes, human influence helped make the events stronger or more likely. But for some events in other regions, the analyses that scientists conducted could not identify a linkage. For a few events, greenhouse gases actually made the extreme event less likely.

Three independent studies which examined Pacific Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric anomalies, found some, but not conclusive, evidence for the impact of human-caused climate change on the ongoing rainfall deficit in the US state of California. For example, one paper found evidence that atmospheric pressure patterns related to the drought increased due to human causes, but their exact influence on the California drought remains uncertain.

So, in your view, which weather events are more likely to be influenced by human factors than others?

Three papers with different methodologies looking at the Chinese, Korean and Japanese heat waves reached the same conclusion. This is a very powerful message. If increases in greenhouse gases are making an event more likely, then it implies that we should expect events like that more often in the future.

The study examined the causes of 16 individual extreme weather events around the world in 2013.

If some extreme weather events could be linked directly to climate change, what does this tell us about the urgency to tackle the issue?

It tells us that climate change is not just in the future but, for example, for the people in eastern China, Korea and Japan, climate change is in their own backyards.

Thomas C. Peterson is President of World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Climatology and the Principal Scientist at the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States.

(C) 2014 Deutsche Welle TV Berlin/Germany

Philippine Has No ISIS Presence

The Philippines has so far not monitored any presence of ISIS member in the country, a senior government official said here today.  

However, "Perhaps there are sympathizers" of the Muslim militants here, Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Abigail Valte said in a local radio program.

The Philippine government has been coordinating with the Muslim groups in the country to thwart threats posed by the Islamic State (ISIS), she added.  

Valte admitted that the government has been taking seriously the threats brought by this terrorist group.

"We do not take it lightly. We don't want to have additional problem here in our country," she said in an interview at a state- run radio station.

She said that the Muslim brothers, including the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), have been helping the government in ensuring that no member of this terror group could enter the Philippines.

The MILF, the largest Muslim rebel group in the country, forged in March this year a peace deal with the Philippine government.

 Members of the terrorist Abu Sayyaf Group and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), a break away group of the MILF, have expressed support to ISIS. 

Manila-NAIA Terminal Fee Included in International Tickets

International passengers departing the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) will no longer have to line up to pay the terminal fee starting October 1. 

 

The Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA) said it will start implementing the integration of terminal fee in the cost of airline ticket next month. The one-year transition integration program would start on October 1, while the full implementation of the policy would be October 2015. 

In a notice, the MIAA said the P550 international passenger service charge or terminal fee should be integrated into the cost of the airline ticket at point of sale. The move is expected to ease the congestion problem at the departure area in NAIA. 

The DOTC has also ordered the Mactan-Cebu International Airport Authority, the Clark International Airport Corporation and the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines to incorporate the terminal fee into the cost of tickets.

The MIAA reiterated that overseas Filipino workers, who have a certification from the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration; pilgrims endorsed by the National Commission on Muslim Filipinos; athletes endorsed by the Philippine Sports Commission; and others authorized by the Office of the President, still enjoy exemptions from paying the terminal fee.

If the airline ticket is purchased online or abroad, these exempted passengers would have to pay terminal fee. Also, the exempted passengers should also pay the fee, if they cannot present the proper certification when tickets are purchased over the counter.

The MIAA, however, said the terminal fee could be refunded at NAIA if the passenger can present the overseas employment certificate, electronic ticket, boarding pass, and MIAA exemption certificate.

The "terminal fee" collected by the MIAA is used for the airport operations. Of the P550, the MIAA gets P390 for maintenance and upkeep, the national government gets P100 and aviation security gets P60.

The terminal fee for domestic flights has already been incorporated in airline tickets since August 2012.

Alert 3 on Mount Mayon

LEGAZPI CITY -- The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) raised Mayon Volcano’s alert status to Alert Level 3 at 10 p.m. Monday.

Phivolcs resident volcanologist Ed Laguerta said this means that magma is at the crater and that hazardous eruption is possible within weeks.

“It is recommended that the six-kilometer (km) radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the seven-kilometer Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeastern flank be enforced due to the danger of rock falls, landslides and sudden explosions or dome collapse that may generate hazardous volcanic flows," he said.

Laguerta said the agency's seismic network recorded 32 volcanic earthquakes and 72 rock fall events during the past 24-hour observation period.

He added that Intensity III (bright) crater glow was visible Monday night, although rain clouds prevented visual observation of the crater during the day.

“The rolling incandescent rockfall within the uppermost reaches of the Bonga Gully last night indicates that the summit lava dome is breaching the crater in its southeastern side," the volcanologist said, saying that sulfur dioxide (SO2) flux was measured at an average of 611 tons/day on September 2.

Ground deformation data showed inflationary changes in the edifice from February based on precise leveling surveys on the third week of August, and edifice inflation from January 2012 baselines based on continuous tilt measurement.

Albay Governor Joey Salceda has ordered the forced evacuation of at least 10,000 affected residents and the no-human activity order withing the six-kilometer PDZ.

Based on the latest aerial survey and after the raising of Alert 2, authorities noted the entry of about 300 residents within the area although they had been evacuated already.

“There are residents who took advantage of the temporary lull in the volcano’s activity since its eruption in 2009,” Salceda noted.

Since Alert 2 was raised on August 15, the province has been training officials in affected municipalities and barangays.

These local government units (LGUs) are the cities of Legazpi, Tabaco and Ligao, and the towns of Guniobatan, Camalig, Daraga, Sto. Domingo and Malilipot.

Salceda also ordered these LGUs to conduct emergency meetings for the evacuation of the villagers within the six-km PDZ to eight-km EDZ.

“We will enforce the cluster approach in the management of the evacuation camps, like what we organized and trained for such event in 2009,” he did.

The Albay governor said he recommended to the Department of Education (DepEd) to come up already with emergency plans for the affected schools and students.

Salceda said that during disasters, the rights of the evacuees are superior to the rights of schoolchildren as guidance.

“The province-owned permanent evacuation centers in Gogon, Daraga nd Guinobatan can no longer be used as classrooms starting today,” he said. “Moreover, there may be a need to use more schools to accommodate the evacuees from the 6km-8km EDZ.”

He instructed the DepEd to institute measures to minimize disruption of learning, instruction and schooling for those affected barangays and host schools.

“Those living in the area southeast of Mayon are advised to prepare moist cloths to cover their faces and noses in preparation for the ash falls,” Salceda said.

He ordered the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Philippine National Police, Provincial Engineering Office and other members of the emergency team to ensure the availability of vehicles for evacuation and other activities needing transport and dispatch these to the Provincial Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Council (PDRRMC) Operation Center for immediate dispatch in case of need.

The PDRRMC, Albay Provincial Safety and Emergency Management Office, and the mayors of the affected cities and municipalities will have an emergency meeting at 9:00 a.m. Tuesday.

In response to the Mayon Level 3 alert, the Guinobatan DRRMC has evacuted 28 families (120 persons) living within the six-kilometer PDZ in Barangay Muladbucad Grande Monday night, according to Mayor Gemma Ongjoco. (PNA)

Stranded Passengers in Bicol Due to Rough Seas

By Ma. April Mier, Shiena Barrameda |Inquirer South Luzon    

Bernardo Alejandro, Office of Civil Defense director in the Bicol region, said that as of noon Sunday, the stranded passengers included 431 at the port of Tabaco City and 137 in Pio Duran, both in Albay; 56 at Bulan Port and 58 at Pilar Port, both in Sorsogon; 11 at the Virac port and seven in San Andres Port, both  in Catanduanes; 19 at the Pasacao Port; and 11 at Guijalo, both in Camarines  Norte. 

Also stranded in these ports were 78 cargo trucks, 15 sea vessels and 3 motorized banca. 

Seaman First Danilo Gerona of the Philippine Coast Guard in Bicol (PCG 5),  said these passengers and vessels were stranded since Saturday after the  Coast Guard issued a gale warning for fishing boats, small sea craft and  larger sea vessels traveling along the seaboards of Visayas and the eastern  seaboard of Southern Luzon and Mindanao.

There was no report of missing fishermen as of Sunday, in Bicol, Gerona added. 

nd-province of Catanduanes, were provided with meals since Saturday by  the provincial government of Albay, said Alejandro. 

All flights in Legazpi City were meanwhile canceled Sunday due to low visibility but those at the Naga City Airport, which was suspended earlier  in the day, resumed at 11 a.m., said Alejandro. 

In Catanduanes, health and disaster authorities were placed on alert as the province, where storm signal number 1 has been hoisted Saturday, was  battered by tropical storm Luis. A detour bridge at the village of Hicming  in the capital town of Virac was destroyed at the storm on Saturday,  isolating six villages. 

Meanwhile, Senior Supt. Marlo Meneses, chief of the Albay police, said additional policemen were deployed at the Tabaco port to beef up security as the number of stranded passengers continued to rise. 

The storm warning signal over Catanduanes has been lowered but gale warning  was still enforced in this area, which means sailing and fishing remained  prohibited, based on the 11 a.m bulletin of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).