This might not be the typical expat blog, written by a German expat, living in the Philippines since 1999. It's different. In English and in German. Check it out! Enjoy reading!
Dies mag' nun wirklich nicht der typische Auswandererblog eines Deutschen auf den Philippinen sein. Er soll etwas anders sein. In Englisch und in Deutsch! Viel Spass beim Lesen!
You plan to move to the Philippines? Wollen Sie auf den Philippinen leben?
There are REALLY TONS of websites telling us how, why, maybe why not and when you'll be able to move to the Philippines. I only love to tell and explain some things "between the lines". Enjoy reading, be informed, have fun and be entertained too!
Ja, es gibt tonnenweise Webseiten, die Ihnen sagen wie, warum, vielleicht warum nicht und wann Sie am besten auf die Philippinen auswandern könnten. Ich möchte Ihnen in Zukunft "zwischen den Zeilen" einige zusätzlichen Dinge berichten und erzählen. Viel Spass beim Lesen und Gute Unterhaltung!
Visitors of germanexpatinthephilippines/Besucher dieser Webseite.Ich liebe meine Flaggensammlung!
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Showing posts with label IAN NICOLAS P. CIGARAL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IAN NICOLAS P. CIGARAL. Show all posts
The Philippine peso slid to a new record low against the dollar on the first trading day of the week, as rising US Treasury yields amid mounting expectations of interest-rate increases from global central banks drive the greenback’s strength.
The local currency fell 2.9 centavos to close at 61.75 per dollar, matching the day’s intraday low and surpassing the previous record-low finish of 61.721 set in the prior session, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.
The Philippine peso fell to a fresh record closing low on Thursday, as domestic political tensions added pressure to an already weakening currency buffeted by a strong US dollar.
The local currency weakened by 26 centavos to settle at 61.64 per dollar, according to data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines, surpassing its previous all-time closing low of 61.567 set on April 29.
The peso posted an intraday low of 61.66 before recovering slightly. Trading volume eased to $1.6 billion from $1.8 billion a day earlier.
The combination of a prolonged war in the Middle East and a hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) could send the peso weakening to the 62 to 63 level, MUFG Global Markets Research warned.
In its monthly foreign-exchange outlook, MUFG said its baseline forecast still sees the peso trading between 60.5 and 61.5 over time. But a longer conflict and delayed rate cuts by the Fed could intensify pressure on the currency.
“In a risk scenario of prolonged conflict, we continue to see the Philippine peso as vulnerable and USD/PHP rising towards 62 to 63, especially if this is combined with a hawkish Fed,” the bank said.
Remittances from Filipinos abroad are expected to remain resilient even after posting their slowest growth in nearly two years in February, before the Middle East conflict heightened fears of labor displacement.
Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed money sent home through banks rose 2.6 percent from a year earlier to $2.79 billion. That was the weakest pace of growth since June 2024, when remittances increased by 2.5 percent and the lowest monthly inflow since May 2025, when they totaled $2.66 billion.
In the first two months of the year, remittances reached $5.81 billion, up 3.1 percent.
Domini Velasquez, chief economist at Chinabank, said the slower remittance growth in February was partly due to weaker inflows from the United States, where 40 percent of the total cash transfers came from. To note, a common practice of remittance centers in various cities abroad is to course remittances through correspondent banks, most of which are located in the United States.
“The 1 percent excise tax on remittance transfers from the US introduced at the start of 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Act may have weighed on remittances and may have pushed some overseas Filipinos to use alternative transfer channels,” Velasquez said.
The slowdown came ahead of a widening war involving Iran, the United States and Israel that has rattled energy markets and raised fears of job displacement for migrant workers. Inflows from the Middle East accounted for about 18 percent of total remittances to the Philippines last year.
For now, the BSP is sticking to its year-end forecast of 3-percent remittance growth to $36.7 billion, noting that “there remain no signs of mass repatriation or widespread deployment bans” despite the geopolitical turmoil.
The risk extends beyond households to banks, as potential job losses in the Gulf could weaken the financial buffers of workers’ families and their ability to repay loans. In a report on Wednesday, S&P Global Ratings warned that Philippine banks could face pressure on loan quality.
“If labor markets in the Gulf are disrupted, it could affect remittances, which could in turn erode deposit growth and repayment capacity in the Philippines, India and Bangladesh,” S&P said, adding that a widening Middle East conflict poses a $180 billion downside risk to Asia-Pacific banks.
Looking ahead, Robert Dan Roces, group economist at SM Investments, said remittances were likely to show their countercyclical nature during difficult periods. Unlike private capital, which typically retreats during economic downturns or natural disasters, remittances often swell as expatriates step in to provide relief to their families back home.
“The Middle East conflict adds risk, but flows tend to hold as they are need-driven,” he said. “Remittances should remain as a steady support for consumption, just with less momentum.”
Velasquez shared the same view. “In the near term, rising domestic consumer prices—driven largely by increased fuel costs—could prompt OFWs to send more money home to help cover rising household expenses,” she said. “This could offset the losses from repatriation of some OFWs from the Middle East.”
HONG KONG—Filipino consumers recorded the sharpest drop in confidence in Asia in 2025, as persistent inflation worries, stagnant wages and the fallout from a recent graft scandal weighed on sentiment, a new survey found.
And with the ongoing war in the Middle East stoking local pump prices, effective government intervention is needed to shore up household confidence.
The Philippines stood out as an outlier in the Asia Consumer Study 2026 by Germany-based consultancy Roland Berger. The survey found that 35 percent of Filipino respondents expressed a positive outlook on the future, down from 53 percent in 2024—the steepest decline among 11 Asian markets surveyed.
Roland Berger polled more than 3,500 respondents across the region to track the forces shaping consumer behavior in 2025 and this year.
Hugo Texier, the study’s author and a partner at the firm, said the gloomier outlook largely reflected domestic developments. “Typically, this is driven by a political or economic event,” he said in an interview. “I think there is fear of inflation. I think there is wage stagnation.”
“It doesn’t mean they will not spend, but it means they are more cautious,” he added.
The findings echo the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ own consumer survey, which showed confidence deteriorating to a pandemic-era low of -22.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
A negative reading indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. Among the factors that dragged down household sentiment, the central bank said, was a sweeping corruption scandal that has implicated high-ranking government officials.
Roland Berger said the erosion in confidence was making Filipinos more price-conscious. About 22 percent of respondents said they were highly sensitive to prices when making purchases, relying on promotions, bundles and installment schemes to maximize value.
Even so, a larger share—49 percent—still placed the highest priority on product quality in their buying decisions.
Notably, that emphasis on quality is boosting interest in luxury goods. The proportion of Filipino respondents intending to shift toward premium purchases rose to 22 percent in 2025 from a year earlier, with the strongest demand for high-end clothing and footwear (61 percent), jewelry (59 percent) and cosmetics and fragrances (55 percent).
Looking ahead, Texier said the ongoing war in the Middle East could trigger a “fundamental” shift in consumption patterns in the Philippines, with households likely to turn more price sensitive.
This, Texier said, should prompt businesses to rethink their strategy.
“Use promotions, bundles, installment options and loyalty programs to appeal to price-conscious consumers,” he said.
The Philippine peso could slide back past the 59-per-dollar mark if oil prices climb and stay elevated amid the war in the Middle East, a development that would strain energy-importing economies such as the Philippines.
In a note to clients, MUFG Global Markets Research said the local currency might trade between 58.50 and 59.50 against the US dollar should crude prices hold at around $90 a barrel.
Sustained gains in global energy costs, it said, would swell the country’s already heavy import bill, adding pressure on the peso.
