This might not be the typical expat blog, written by a German expat, living in the Philippines since 1999. It's different. In English and in German. Check it out! Enjoy reading!
Dies mag' nun wirklich nicht der typische Auswandererblog eines Deutschen auf den Philippinen sein. Er soll etwas anders sein. In Englisch und in Deutsch! Viel Spass beim Lesen!
You plan to move to the Philippines? Wollen Sie auf den Philippinen leben?
There are REALLY TONS of websites telling us how, why, maybe why not and when you'll be able to move to the Philippines. I only love to tell and explain some things "between the lines". Enjoy reading, be informed, have fun and be entertained too!
Ja, es gibt tonnenweise Webseiten, die Ihnen sagen wie, warum, vielleicht warum nicht und wann Sie am besten auf die Philippinen auswandern könnten. Ich möchte Ihnen in Zukunft "zwischen den Zeilen" einige zusätzlichen Dinge berichten und erzählen. Viel Spass beim Lesen und Gute Unterhaltung!
Visitors of germanexpatinthephilippines/Besucher dieser Webseite.Ich liebe meine Flaggensammlung!
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Showing posts with label IAN NICOLAS P. CIGARAL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IAN NICOLAS P. CIGARAL. Show all posts
The combination of a prolonged war in the Middle East and a hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) could send the peso weakening to the 62 to 63 level, MUFG Global Markets Research warned.
In its monthly foreign-exchange outlook, MUFG said its baseline forecast still sees the peso trading between 60.5 and 61.5 over time. But a longer conflict and delayed rate cuts by the Fed could intensify pressure on the currency.
“In a risk scenario of prolonged conflict, we continue to see the Philippine peso as vulnerable and USD/PHP rising towards 62 to 63, especially if this is combined with a hawkish Fed,” the bank said.
Remittances from Filipinos abroad are expected to remain resilient even after posting their slowest growth in nearly two years in February, before the Middle East conflict heightened fears of labor displacement.
Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed money sent home through banks rose 2.6 percent from a year earlier to $2.79 billion. That was the weakest pace of growth since June 2024, when remittances increased by 2.5 percent and the lowest monthly inflow since May 2025, when they totaled $2.66 billion.
In the first two months of the year, remittances reached $5.81 billion, up 3.1 percent.
Domini Velasquez, chief economist at Chinabank, said the slower remittance growth in February was partly due to weaker inflows from the United States, where 40 percent of the total cash transfers came from. To note, a common practice of remittance centers in various cities abroad is to course remittances through correspondent banks, most of which are located in the United States.
“The 1 percent excise tax on remittance transfers from the US introduced at the start of 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Act may have weighed on remittances and may have pushed some overseas Filipinos to use alternative transfer channels,” Velasquez said.
The slowdown came ahead of a widening war involving Iran, the United States and Israel that has rattled energy markets and raised fears of job displacement for migrant workers. Inflows from the Middle East accounted for about 18 percent of total remittances to the Philippines last year.
For now, the BSP is sticking to its year-end forecast of 3-percent remittance growth to $36.7 billion, noting that “there remain no signs of mass repatriation or widespread deployment bans” despite the geopolitical turmoil.
The risk extends beyond households to banks, as potential job losses in the Gulf could weaken the financial buffers of workers’ families and their ability to repay loans. In a report on Wednesday, S&P Global Ratings warned that Philippine banks could face pressure on loan quality.
“If labor markets in the Gulf are disrupted, it could affect remittances, which could in turn erode deposit growth and repayment capacity in the Philippines, India and Bangladesh,” S&P said, adding that a widening Middle East conflict poses a $180 billion downside risk to Asia-Pacific banks.
Looking ahead, Robert Dan Roces, group economist at SM Investments, said remittances were likely to show their countercyclical nature during difficult periods. Unlike private capital, which typically retreats during economic downturns or natural disasters, remittances often swell as expatriates step in to provide relief to their families back home.
“The Middle East conflict adds risk, but flows tend to hold as they are need-driven,” he said. “Remittances should remain as a steady support for consumption, just with less momentum.”
Velasquez shared the same view. “In the near term, rising domestic consumer prices—driven largely by increased fuel costs—could prompt OFWs to send more money home to help cover rising household expenses,” she said. “This could offset the losses from repatriation of some OFWs from the Middle East.”
HONG KONG—Filipino consumers recorded the sharpest drop in confidence in Asia in 2025, as persistent inflation worries, stagnant wages and the fallout from a recent graft scandal weighed on sentiment, a new survey found.
And with the ongoing war in the Middle East stoking local pump prices, effective government intervention is needed to shore up household confidence.
The Philippines stood out as an outlier in the Asia Consumer Study 2026 by Germany-based consultancy Roland Berger. The survey found that 35 percent of Filipino respondents expressed a positive outlook on the future, down from 53 percent in 2024—the steepest decline among 11 Asian markets surveyed.
Roland Berger polled more than 3,500 respondents across the region to track the forces shaping consumer behavior in 2025 and this year.
Hugo Texier, the study’s author and a partner at the firm, said the gloomier outlook largely reflected domestic developments. “Typically, this is driven by a political or economic event,” he said in an interview. “I think there is fear of inflation. I think there is wage stagnation.”
“It doesn’t mean they will not spend, but it means they are more cautious,” he added.
The findings echo the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ own consumer survey, which showed confidence deteriorating to a pandemic-era low of -22.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
A negative reading indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. Among the factors that dragged down household sentiment, the central bank said, was a sweeping corruption scandal that has implicated high-ranking government officials.
Roland Berger said the erosion in confidence was making Filipinos more price-conscious. About 22 percent of respondents said they were highly sensitive to prices when making purchases, relying on promotions, bundles and installment schemes to maximize value.
Even so, a larger share—49 percent—still placed the highest priority on product quality in their buying decisions.
Notably, that emphasis on quality is boosting interest in luxury goods. The proportion of Filipino respondents intending to shift toward premium purchases rose to 22 percent in 2025 from a year earlier, with the strongest demand for high-end clothing and footwear (61 percent), jewelry (59 percent) and cosmetics and fragrances (55 percent).
Looking ahead, Texier said the ongoing war in the Middle East could trigger a “fundamental” shift in consumption patterns in the Philippines, with households likely to turn more price sensitive.
This, Texier said, should prompt businesses to rethink their strategy.
“Use promotions, bundles, installment options and loyalty programs to appeal to price-conscious consumers,” he said.
The Philippine peso could slide back past the 59-per-dollar mark if oil prices climb and stay elevated amid the war in the Middle East, a development that would strain energy-importing economies such as the Philippines.
In a note to clients, MUFG Global Markets Research said the local currency might trade between 58.50 and 59.50 against the US dollar should crude prices hold at around $90 a barrel.
Sustained gains in global energy costs, it said, would swell the country’s already heavy import bill, adding pressure on the peso.
The Philippine peso slumped to a new record low on Wednesday, pressured by a rebounding dollar amid firmer expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged despite pressure from the White House.
The local currency capped yesterday’s session at 59.44 against the greenback, 9 centavos weaker than its previous finish and beating the previous record-low closing of 59.355 set on Jan. 7.
The peso’s worst showing in intraday trade stood at 59.45:$1. Total volume fell to $951 million, from $999.22 million before.
Latest data showed that the US consumer price index had risen by 2.7 percent last month, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. With economists divided over whether inflation in America has already peaked, Reuters reported that the Fed was widely expected to keep rates steady at its meeting this month.
“Expect the US dollar-peso spot to grind lower, as steady corporate demand and a firm US dollar backdrop are likely to overwhelm local bank supply,” a trader said.
Firmer greenback
“The dollar is strong because US growth is holding up; rates are staying higher for longer; and policy uncertainty around the Fed is reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven appeal,” the trader added. “Fed uncertainty hasn’t weakened the dollar—it has actually strengthened it by keeping rates high and investors defensive.”
A weaker peso carries mixed consequences for the Philippines.
It boosts the domestic value of remittances sent home by millions of overseas workers and could help make Filipino exports more competitive. But it also risks driving up import costs and reigniting inflation.
Prolonged depreciation could likewise inflate the peso value of foreign debt held by the government and private firms.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has signaled it will allow market forces to determine the exchange rate, intervening only if a sustained downturn threatens to fuel imported inflation.
The BSP is willing to absorb some currency weakness as it approaches the conclusion of its pro-growth push. Governor Eli Remolona Jr. last week signaled that the central bank’s easing cycle could end with just one more interest rate cut—possibly in February—unless “bad surprises” emerge that would justify further reductions.
Looking ahead, analysts at MUFG Research warned that a renewed rise in global oil prices could weigh on the peso, as higher import costs would intensify dollar outflows in the Philippines, a net oil importer.
With Brent crude trading near $65 a barrel, oil-sensitive Asian currencies have already come under pressure, they said, even as the global oil market remained “fundamentally oversupplied.”
Diwa Guinigundo, an economist at New York-based GlobalSource Partners, said uneven and subdued foreign direct investment inflows could add to the strain.
“Prolonged FDI (foreign direct investment) weakness could place downward pressure on the peso, especially amid potentially tighter global financial conditions,” Guinigundo said. “With growth already struggling to reach the lower bound of the 2025 target of 5.5 percent, unresolved political and fiscal governance challenges risk making the outlook for 2026 even more demanding.”
Cheuk Wan Fan, chief investment officer for Asia at HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth, struck a more measured tone, holding a neutral view on the peso over the next six months.
“After the Philippines peso weakened to its record low level against the US dollar in 2025, we expect the peso to remain largely range bound this year and will reach 59.20 at the end of 2026,” Fan said.
