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By Kaithreen Cruz, Manila Times
THE nationwide seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases further dropped to 2,959 as of August 27, a 15-percent decline from the previous week, according to OCTA Research.
OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the seven-day average was at its highest just two weeks ago at 4,071 cases.
The average daily attack rate (ADAR) was 2.69 per 100,000 population — classified as low — as the reproduction rate, or the number of new cases caused by one infected individual, slid from 0.96 on August 17 to 0.91 on August 24.
A decrease in the positivity rate was also observed, from 16.2 to 14.3 percent as of August 26.
"If the current trends in the growth rate hold, this projects to less than 1,000 cases per day nationwide by mid-September and less than 500 per day by end of September," David said.
The World Health Organization set a 5-percent positivity rate benchmark to indicate that the infection is under control.
OCTA also observed that the Covid-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) was going down, to 0.99 on August 23 from 1.02 on August 16.
It was the first time since last May 11 that the reproduction number in Metro Manila had dropped below 1.
Covid positivity rate in NCR dips
David said infected numbers might be finally trending down, although at a slower rate.
The NCR positivity rate was at 13.6 percent on August 25, down by 1.1 percent from August 18, with new cases also decreasing to a seven-day average of 1,002 and a one-week growth rate of -9 percent.
"With the current pace, it could take eight weeks before the positivity rate decreases to less than five percent," David predicted.
Health care utilization for Covid-19 and ICU occupancy in NCR both dropped — from 37 to 35 percent and from 31 to 27 percent, respectively, from August 20 to August 25.
Last Friday, Department of Health (DoH) Officer in Charge Maria Rosario Vergeire reminded Filipinos to get vaccinated and boosted against Covid-19 to prevent hospitalization and deaths due to the virus.
The Pinas Lakas campaign is trying to administer booster shots to 23 million Filipinos before President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s first 100 days in office.
The DoH has administered 17.5 million boosters, 4.8 million of which were from NCR.
Vergeire noted that 60 percent of severe and critical Covid cases were either unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated.
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