Filipino Cardinal Tagle among top candidates, or 'papabili', to succeed Pope Francis
There's an old saying in the Vatican: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves as a cardinal." It's a reminder of the unpredictable nature of papal elections.
While media outlets and Vatican watchers may list papabili, or those seen as likely successors, history has shown that the College of Cardinals often chooses someone unexpected—guided by the Spirit more than by speculation.
Cardinals like Luis Antonio Tagle are frequently mentioned due to their visibility, influence, or alignment with Pope Francis's vision. But these lists are just educated guesses. The true outcome of a conclave is shaped behind closed doors—through prayer, reflection, and quiet deliberation—not headlines or betting odds.
In the end, the next pope may very well be someone whose name isn’t on any shortlist—until the moment the white smoke rises.
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church is preparing for a conclave to elect his successor. Among the cardinals considered strong contenders, or papabili, are:
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Aged 67, Cardinal Tagle is a prominent figure in the Church, known for his compassionate approach and alignment with Pope Francis’s progressive vision. He has served as the former Archbishop of Manila and Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples. If elected, he would become the first Asian pope, reflecting the Church’s growth in Asia.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)
At 70, Cardinal Parolin serves as the Vatican’s Secretary of State, effectively acting as the Holy See’s chief diplomat. He is considered a moderate and a continuity candidate, having played key roles in diplomatic relations, including the Vatican-China agreement.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana)
Cardinal Turkson, 76, has been a significant voice on social justice and environmental issues within the Church. He previously led the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development. His election would mark the first African pope in modern times.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)
Aged 72, Cardinal Erdő is the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and a respected canon law scholar. He is viewed as a conservative candidate who could appeal to those seeking a return to traditional values.
Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta)
At 68, Cardinal Grech serves as the Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops. He has been instrumental in promoting synodality and inclusivity within the Church, aligning with Pope Francis’s vision.
The upcoming conclave will convene 138 eligible cardinals, many of whom were appointed by Pope Francis—potentially influencing the direction of the Church’s future leadership.
Here’s a look at some of the most talked-about papabili—those considered likely to become pope—who were not elected in the past three papal conclaves (1978, 2005, 2013):
2013 Conclave (Pope Francis elected)
Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy): Then Archbishop of Milan, considered a front-runner. Seen as a bridge between conservative and reformist camps.
Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer (Brazil): Archbishop of São Paulo. His candidacy represented the growing Church in Latin America.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada): Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops. A theologically conservative candidate with strong Vatican experience.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana): Known for social justice and environmental advocacy. His potential papacy would have made history as the first African pope in modern times.
2005 Conclave (Pope Benedict XVI elected)
Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Argentina): The future Pope Francis reportedly came in second place. Known for his humility and pastoral style.
Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini (Italy): Jesuit and biblical scholar, popular among progressive circles. His health issues weakened his chances.
Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy): Archbishop of Milan and a strong voice on social issues.
Cardinal Francis Arinze (Nigeria): A top contender from Africa, known for liturgical expertise and interfaith dialogue.
October 1978 Conclave (Pope John Paul II elected)
Cardinal Giuseppe Siri (Italy): A staunch conservative, rumored to have been a leading candidate in multiple conclaves.
Cardinal Giovanni Benelli (Italy): A top contender in 1978. Seen as a pragmatic and capable administrator with strong Vatican ties.
Cardinal Sebastiano Baggio (Italy): Head of the Congregation for Bishops, but was not widely loved by his peers.
Cardinal Franz König (Austria): Progressive and ecumenically minded, helped build support for Karol Wojtyła (John Paul II) during the election.
In each case, the conclave defied expectations—reminding us once again that the Holy Spirit doesn’t follow the odds.
