Again: Europe – quo vadis?
IN MY OPINIONKlaus Doring
When the results were on the table, I really was shocked. And not only me? What does the Brexit mean for the United Kingdom’s and Europe’s future? What does the Brexit means for the whole global economy?
Let me focus especially to France and the United Kingdom. The French business might to gain from Brexit, but also a “Frexit” menaces. Following the Brexit, the UK’s closest continental neighbor faces its own political challenges. But the French are also poised to benefit should the UK lose access to the single market.
As Charles Dickens’ “A Tale of Two Cities,” about Paris and London, begins, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” The same could be said after Great Britain’s decision to leave the European Union with a nearly 52-percent vote. France, the United King-dom’s closest continental neighbor, will have its own set of political and economic challenges in the days ahead: from losing Great Britain as a partner at the EU round table to the specter of its own Frexit referendum. But the French are also poised to benefit should the UK lose access to the single market.
Honestly, the Franco-British political relationship had never been defined by the European Union but is based on bilateral interests. I am sure, that this will not change. It’s not like Germany, where the Franco-German relation-ship is extremely important as long as the EU is working well.
As for refugees – an issue that “Leave” campaig-ners had hammered hard to drum up votes – French center-right Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron had previously said migrants would no longer be stuck at Calais in the event of a Brexit. But Macron’s statement was just an empty threat, and Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said France would uphold its end of the 2003 Le Touquet treaty, which allows UK immigration police to conduct controls on the French side of the channel.
Economy Minister Macron had said the Brexit would mean an influx into Britain from Calais. France had its own day of union reckoning in 2005, when voters rejected an EU-wide constitutional treaty. Could a Frexit be next?
Marine Le Pen, of the far-right National Front party, has long been an advocate of ditching the Euro currency and has already said that France needs to follow Great Britain’s lead and get out of the EU. Le Pen is expected to reach the second round of next year’s presidential elections and says France isn’t the only country that should have a referendum: She wants all EU members to go to the polls. At the latest then, the question will arise: Europe – quo vadis?
Ahead of the Brexit referendum, Herve Mari-ton, who is running for the center-right presidential ticket, had said he would expect the French to ask for a vote similar to the Brexit referendum, and he was not confident that voters would necessarily choose to remain.
As the Brexit referendum result sank in in Paris on Friday, 32-year-old Victor Jauvin said it was good that democracy exists to allow such votes, but he is nevertheless upset about the United Kingdom’s looming exit. “This was 200 years of developing this Europe,” he said. “It’s sad that it’s begun to disintegrate.” “Hyperdemocracy is going to come one day for decisions like this, where we have to consult the citizens of all EU countries,” Jauvin said.
Some called the decision to leave hypocritical and selfish. Indeed, every country in Europe is in crisis. The vote isolates others more than building solidarity. It can’t just be ‘yes’ or ‘no’: European governments and their people have to take another look at the union.
The foreign affairs analyst Pertusot said that if France’s center-right Republicans were to win next year’s presidential election, several of the party’s stronger voices could call for a show “in or out” referendum knowing that an out would be “very, very unlikely.” “The French like to say that they are disappointed with the EU, disenchanted – all the words the French love to say,” Pertusot said. “They dislike many aspects, feeling it’s too big or not French enough. But, at the same time, there is no hostility towards the EU like we see in some parts of the UK.”
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