Metro Manila may reach peak of Covid infections in early July, says OCTA

(SCREEN GRAB FROM LAGING HANDA PUBLIC BRIEFING)

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

With the steady increase in new infections in Metro Manila, the OCTA Research Group projected that the Covid-19 cases in the region may reach its peak by the first or second week of July.

In a televised briefing on Tuesday, June 21, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila’s seven-day average infections increased to 225 cases per day this week, from 131 cases last week.

This translates to a growth rate of 72 percent.

Moreover, Metro Manila’s Covid reproduction number and positivity rate also rose to 2.05 and 4 percent, respectively.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, while positivity rate refers to the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who have been tested for Covid-19.

“Posible itong [average daily cases] tumaas between 500 and 1,000 [cases] by end of June or first week of July. Kapag ganyan masasabi na natin baka nasa moderate risk na yung situation natin (It is possible that the average daily cases will rise between 500 and 1,000 cases by the end of June or the first week of July. By then, we can say that our situation may be at moderate risk),” David said.

David pointed out that Metro Manila may see the peak in infections in early July.

“Tumataas yung bilang ng kaso [at] hindi pa natin nakikita yung pagbaba niyan anytime soon. Baka yung peak niyan could happen sometime first or second week of July (The number of cases is increasing and we are not seeing that to decrease anytime soon. Maybe the peak could happen sometime between the first or second week of July),” he added.

However, he noted that the region’s health care utilization remains within “safe” level, at 22 percent.

“We’re not projecting an increase in hospital utilization. Tataas ito pero hindi ganun kataas (It will go up but not that high) so we should still be okay,” David said.

“Hindi naman tayo kailangan matakot, maalarma. Pero syempre patuloy pa rin ang pag-iingat natin at personal responsibility (We don’t have to be afraid, be alarmed. But, of course, we still have to continue to be careful and practice personal responsibility),” he added.

He also noted that other parts of the country, such as Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Iloilo, and Benguet, are also seeing an increase in cases.

David said there is a need to “raise awareness” rather than “raise alert levels.”

“Ang gusto natin is raising awareness na tumataas yung cases, not necessarily raising alert levels. Kasi kung raising awareness yung mga kababayan natin mag-iingat sila, baka magpabakuna, magpabooster, at the same time matutulungan natin ang ekonomiya natin na hindi natin pipigilin (What we want is raising awareness that cases are rising, not necessarily raising alert levels. Because if our countrymen are raising awareness, they will be careful, maybe get vaccinated, boosted, and we can help our economy to further open up),” he said.