By Franco Jose C. Baroña
(UPDATE) THE weekly positivity rates have decreased in at least eight provinces in Luzon where Covid-19 cases might have already peaked, the independent monitoring group OCTA Research said on Monday.
Pampanga recorded the biggest decrease in weekly positivity rate from 35 percent on August 6 down to 26 percent on August 13.
Positivity rates also went down in Benguet (from 22 percent to 21.6 percent), Cavite (21.1 percent to 18.2 percent), Isabela (47.6 percent to 46.5 percent), Laguna (33.2 percent to 29.5 percent), Pangasinan (25 percent to 21.6 percent), Quezon (25.1 percent to 22.1 percent), and Zambales (28.6 percent to 24 percent).
Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for Covid-19 among the total number of individuals tested.
However, aside from Cavite which has been reduced to a "moderate" positivity rate, these provinces, together with six others (Albay, Cagayan, Camarines Sur, La Union, Nueva Ecija and Tarlac), continue to have "very high" Covid-19 positivity rates.
Meanwhile, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David reported that the one-week growth rate of Covid-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased to -1 percent on Sunday.
David said that NCR's growth rate was at 9 percent as of August 7.
He pointed out that this development may mean that the Covid-19 infections in the NCR are beginning to dip.
"This could be the start of a downward trend, although the one-week growth rate will have to decrease even further (e.g., -50 percent) to see significant decreases in daily new cases in the NCR," David said.
Covid positivity up in Visayas, Mindanao
He said the NCR's Covid-19 cases may have already peaked with its weekly positivity rate dropping to 16.4 percent on August 12, from 17.5 percent on August 6.
As of Saturday, August 13, the NCR's positivity rate was at 16.2 percent from the 17.4 percent recorded on August 6.
David also said on Monday that the NCR's reproduction number — or the number of people infected by one case — also went down to 1.15 on August 11 from 1.21 on August 4.
The average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR also decreased slightly to 8.70 per 100,000 population on Saturday from 8.77 on August 7.
Covid positivity rate in NCR dips
ADAR refers to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.
NCR's health care utilization, however, had an uptick on August 13 at 37 percent from 36 percent on August 8. Its intensive care unit occupancy, on the other hand, remained at 31 percent over the same period.
David said the NCR is still at moderate risk for Covid-19.
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