By Dr. Jun Ynares
THE VIEW FROM RIZAL
As we write, reports say the United States will mobilize naval vessels to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical waterway. This follows the US Vice President's declaration that negotiations with Iran were a “failure” just hours earlier.
The US Veep’s statement had earlier doused cold water on hopes that the ongoing dispute in the Middle East could be headed to a resolution, that cargo ships might be able to resume their safe and uninterrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that prices of petroleum products in the country and in the world might finally experience a downward slide.
Indications are that none of that is likely to happen soon. Peace, at this point, seems to be elusive, and all-out hostilities may resume soon. We can only pray that a possible resumption of hostilities when the ceasefire expires on the 21st of this month may be averted, that the lives of people in the affected regions of the world are spared, and that the global economy survives.
It is interesting that in the face of the wild upward spiral of gasoline prices in the country, there has been no howl on the part of the public. Yes, there are fewer cars on the streets, and more families have decided to stay at home during the long Holy Week holiday. There are posts on social media sharing the pain caused by the upward surge in fuel prices, but there is no anger directed towards a specific person or country.
It seems there is a widespread, silent admission that these adverse developments, fueled by the conflict in the Middle East, are beyond our control. It appears there is a quiet resignation to the fact that we are “collateral damage.” We can only reel under the effect of the conflict and from the absence of the proverbial “light at the end of the tunnel.”
Those who were already born when two earlier “Gulf Wars” erupted and disrupted the global economy appear to be more hopeful in the face of the ongoing conflict in the region. Our elders in Rizal recall that in 1973, the member-countries of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries slapped an embargo on countries that sided with Israel in the war against Egypt.
This was the first “oil crisis,” which, our elders recall, caused a major spike in gasoline prices in our country. This served as a reminder to all that some countries hold a stranglehold on the supply of vital energy resources the world badly needs.
There was another “oil crisis” in 1979, after petroleum supplies dropped sharply following the Iranian revolution, which brought down the then-powerful Shah.
Reflecting on these experiences, our elders say, “Humanity has navigated more difficult geopolitical events.” They believe no country wants to trigger an apocalyptic event that could risk the annihilation of mankind. In their view, “The warring parties will always seek a way out of the conflict and resort to more pragmatic compromises.”
They pointed out that, from a sober, rational perspective, the failure of the talks between the US and Iran “disappointed us but does not surprise us.”
They reinforced this by explaining, “We have to understand that there have been decades of deep mistrust between these two countries. We cannot expect that to be resolved in 21 hours.”
The point is clear. Negotiations, whether in business or in geopolitics, require a reasonable level of mutual trust. They also require a clear, solid intention to negotiate and openness to softening positions, bargaining, and crafting a compromise. When both sides issue “demands” and “conditions” right at the start of the supposed “negotiation,” we can anticipate such talks to “fail,” even if only temporarily.
Our elders are “optimistic” that the “door is not fully shut” to a resumption of negotiations. They pointed out that mediators in Pakistan and Oman are pushing for the extension of the ceasefire and using indirect channels. They said they believe both Iran and the US have “compelling reasons” to have a longer period of “truce.” Iran’s economy is under serious strain, and the US has domestic priorities that its government must attend to. Neither can afford to keep the current conflict raging indefinitely.
The same realities apply to us and the rest of the world. With these uncertainties, the pressing question is: what do we do in the meantime?
We have previously written about developing a “resilient mindset.” To build on that, let us add strategies based on the counsel of our elders, who “have been there.”
To recall, we must have a clear idea about what we can influence and what we cannot. For example, cutting down on unnecessary trips and expenses – that is within our control. The events in the Strait of Hormuz are not. It is good to have a list of what we must start doing today to buffer us from the possible effects of a prolonged stand-off in the conflict areas. That perspective should reduce the anxiety and fear.
Our elders also advised us to keep in mind that the world has had to absorb fallouts from similar conflicts: The previous Gulf crises, the war in Ukraine, among others. We survived them. Our country had weathered so-called “energy shocks” in the past. We adapted; our government responded with policies and programs. We emerged scathed but sometimes even better.
In sum, we can aspire to achieve the same resilience in the current situation. The elusive peace will eventually come—no matter when and at what cost.
(The author is a Doctor of Medicine, an entrepreneur and the mayor of Antipolo City, former Rizal governor, and DENR assistant secretary, LLDA general manager. Email: antipolocitygov@gmail.com)
