By Atty.
Gregorio LarrazabalPublished Jul 2, 2026 12:02 am
OFF THE BEATEN PATH
I wrote some time back the incoming crisis that many countries in the world are going to face, or are already facing. This is due to several factors. Man-made and those caused by nature.
For the man-made, we look no further than the on-and-off-and-on-and-off (then repeat) Iran war, which caused severe disruption to the worldwide delivery of ammonia. While many simply looked at the impact of oil, I googled and discovered that there was also disruption in the supply of the following:
1. Packaged foods and beverages — Primarily, the impact was on aluminum shortages, which have affected canned beverages, causing soft drinks to disappear from some shelves. Staple foods like rice, green lentils, and vegetable oils have seen massive price spikes, directly threatening global food security.
2. Plastics and synthetics — Causing the cost of manufacturing plastics. This directly affects the production of everyday goods like beer, potato chip bags, toys, cosmetics, and agricultural plastic films.
3. Agricultural fertilizers — Around 25 percent of global fertilizer exports come from the Persian Gulf. This has resulted in shortages and rising costs for urea, ammonia, phosphates, and sulfur, which are impacting global crop yields. In particular, ammonia, the key ingredient for the production of fertilizer used in plantations, has been severely affected. While the passage of vessels in the Hormuz Strait has increased, it’s still below the traffic flow before the USA and Israel attacked Iran. Hopefully, in the coming days and weeks, the number of ships safely passing the strait increases
If the war wasn’t enough, some climate models warn that the 2026 El Niño has a 60 to 70 percent probability of intensifying into a “super El Niño” by the final quarter of the year. As a result, sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific could exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius, potentially making it the strongest event in over a century. Several countries have already been hit. Just last week, the temperature in France reached 40 degrees Celsius, causing over 1,00 deaths. Across the Channel, Britain is expected to experience its third heatwave this year. While here at home, we’ve already had a glimpse of the hot weather, which is affecting the agricultural sector. It’s good that the Department of Agriculture has been taking steps to cushion the blow of the weather phenomenon.
About a week ago, Goldman Sachs warned that Southeast Asia could face a food-supply challenge, caused not only by the war in the Middle East but also by the threat of a strong El Niño event later this year.
Based on news reports, the investment bank estimates that the combined pressures could add an average of one percentage point to regional food inflation after six months, building to 2.1 points after a year before easing. Goldman Sachs stressed that its numbers reflect added pressure on the usual trend, not a full inflation forecast.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates that the odds of an El Niño event in June and August this year are 80 percent. It only gets worse, as the organization expects El Niño to remain dominant, with the probability of holding near or above 90 percent through at least until November. That will hit the sugar crop season in the Philippines, which starts in October.
Goldman said that Malaysia and Indonesia are better shielded from the global food price shock, thanks to palm oil. However, the Philippines and Singapore are the most exposed to the global food price shock. The Philippines is more dependent on imported food supplies, just like Singapore.
If what was discussed above still wasn’t enough, for Metro Manila and nearby areas, there is the water level of Angat Dam, which provides water for farms and drinking water to residents of Metro Manila. Currently, the water level of Angat Dam is already below the critical threshold of 160 meters above sea level. Farmers who depend on the reservoir have already raised concerns. Their fear is that there will be little or no irrigation water available for the start of the July wet-season cropping.
For those wondering how much water is needed to bring Angat Dam back to its normal operating level, the reservoir requires an estimated 1,229 mm of rainfall. For those calculating how much water that requires, that volume is equivalent to almost three times the torrential rainfall brought by the notorious Typhoon Ondoy in 2009. Yes, that much water is needed.
With some so engrossed in politics, I hope people will not forget the concerns of millions of Filipinos about having affordable food on their table.
(The author is a former Comelec commissioner. He was the chairman of the Comelec Steering Committee that oversaw the successful modernization of the first national automated Philippines elections in 2010. He remains involved in public service as an election lawyer and is a Senior Partner at Divina Law Office.)
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