Pagasa sees 10 to 15 cyclones this year amid El Niño

By Arlie O. Calalo

June 5, 2023 10

The El Niño phenomenon is likely to occur late this month or by July but some areas in the country, particularly Luzon including Metro Manila, may experience above normal rainfall conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Monday.

The weather bureau said that 10 to 15 tropical cyclones may enter or form within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from June to October this year.

Weather specialist Benison Estareja said the onset of the wet season does not mean that there would be rain all the time during this period.

"We have this what we call monsoon breaks wherein we can experience cloudy but hot weather due to the absence of the southwest monsoon," Estareja said.

He said that despite the onset of El Niño, which leads to dry spells and droughts, some areas may also have above normal rainfall.

"In fact during the third quarter of the year, it is possible that the country will experience strong typhoons and heavy rainfall and only on the last months of the year and first quarter of 2024 that we may experience less rainfall," the Pagasa forecaster said.

El Niño is a weather condition characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Citing Pagasa's monitoring track, Estareja said some of the tropical cyclones may make landfall in Luzon and Visayas while others may enhance the southwest monsoon specifically in the western part of the country.

In the next 24 hours, the weather agency said the southwest monsoon will affect the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon.

Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and Palawan will likely have overcast skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.

The southwest monsoon and localized thunderstorms, meanwhile, will prevail in Metro Manila and the rest of the country where partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated downpour and thunderstorms may be experienced, the weather bureau said.