SEASONAL MONSOON TRANSITION MONITOR
KEY FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
Habagat Retreat: Long-range numerical model projections show the gradual weakening and retreat of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) flow away from the archipelago.
Habagat Retreat: Long-range numerical model projections show the gradual weakening and retreat of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) flow away from the archipelago. Northeast Wind Surge: High-latitude pressure patterns over East Asia indicate cool, northeasterly winds pushing southward from Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands toward Extreme Northern Luzon (Batanes and Babuyan Islands). Weather Pattern Shift: The influx of northeasterly winds typically marks the early stages of monsoon transition, bringing cooler morning temperatures and scattered light rains along eastern sea exposures.IMPORTANT REMINDER
Long-Range Model Projection: This forecast run for September 13, 2026 is an extended-range weather projection. Atmospheric indicators will continue to evolve as subsequent model runs become available.
Long-Range Model Projection: This forecast run for September 13, 2026 is an extended-range weather projection. Atmospheric indicators will continue to evolve as subsequent model runs become available. Official Declaration: The formal onset of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is officially declared by PAGASA once specific meteorological parameters, such as persistent high-pressure systems over mainland Asia and established northeasterly winds, are fully satisfied.SOURCE: ECMWF / Windy (Model Run: August 31, 2026 | Forecast Date: September 13, 2026)
